gfox
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Posts: 1
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Re: making landfall soon
Fri Jul 08 2005 01:43 PM
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Maybe this is self-serving, since I'm a scientist (but not a meteorologist), but it seems to me that the meteorologists do an impressive job, considering the complexity of the systems involved and the difficulty of taking enough measurements. No, they can't predict with certainty exactly what's going to happen, but if we didn't have meteorologists and models, I don't have any doubt that there'd be much more death and destruction from these storms. We'd also have much more needless panic.
There's inherently a great deal of uncertainty in areas like meteorology. The scientists (but not necessarily the TV meteorologists) are usually pretty clear about which part of their statements they have confidence in and which part they don't. There's no question about it: the storm MAY trash my (Tampa) house this weekend, but I think it's exceptionally valuable that we have science that can tell us that, at present, that's fairly unlikely.
>almost EVERYONE with any kind of "certified" knowledge on anything....usually is the most unqualified in my book!!!
Well, to each their own, but I doubt that you take your car to get fixed by a plumber.
To make the point more seriously: meteorology is inherently probabilistic. There are times when they are more able to predict details of events and times when they are less able. What they do get remarkably well are the broad outlines (it's likely to rain in central FL tomorrow, or Dennis is likely to stay west of the peninsula), and sometimes even the details. It'd be nice if they could tell us with assurance what's going to happen, but deciding that they know nothihng because they can't know everything really isn't a sensible conclusion.
Bottom line: of course you should stay prepared and watchful, and don't be astonished if there is a surprise or two in the events. But I don't think it's reasonable to argue that meteorologists are somehow in a conspiracy to fool people in peninsular Florida into complacency!
Gordon
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Dr. Gordon A. Fox
Department. of Biology
University of South Florida
4202 E. Fowler Ave.
Tampa, FL 33620
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