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What it means is that the models did not initialize (represent) the mid & upper level feature currently over eastern Texas quite to the strength that the observations show. That would suggest that it might have a stronger impact on the storm than the models are predicting...or that the response could be otherwise entirely different, we really don't know yet. It is the big player with regards to the storm, however, and is something being watched very closely by the NHC, NWS offices, as well as many others.

It also states that the ridge has largely remained unchanged during the day -- changes may be coming, but they are slow in doing so. This isn't any different than the forecasts, however.

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Clark, thx for the explanation. Was this the situation you've been refering to since midnight last nite? That the models were underestimating the strength of the Upper Trof dropping into the western Gulf? I didn't understand the NHC discussion when the commentator said that this would maintain a "deep southeasterly flow over the eastern gulf". In my mind, it would erode the ridge more than the models anticipate and cause more of a northward motion. Am I correct in that logic?

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RJB

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