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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

doug
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl

Re: I don't see Cat 5
Thu Sep 19 2002 04:12 PM

I don't see cat 5 either...I did say 3 earlier in the last thread, but now I think maybe not. However upper 2 (110mph) is probable...why?
The WV shows a clash in the upper atmosphere setting up at about 90w.. an upper low is evident in the GOM and the push from the west is seen trying to make headway to the east. This seems to be setting up a boundary for the current environment that is sustaining the storm at about 87-90w The UL is not moving over the entire course of the loop...the flow arond the upper low over the Yucatan is clearly South to North..and this will only be a negative on the strengthening of the storm once it gets into the GOM. Of course this could back off, but it does not look like it will. This is why, I think the models slow the storm and most keep it around 85w for a few days.
Eventually all this has to give...and depending on how strong the push from the west is and how quickly it begins to take over, will dictate where IZZY goes, and when...From past experience I think we can agree that IF Izzy does as now predicted, and moves slowly in the SE GOM until the rather strong trough coming down later to provide the imptus for the push east...once that push begins then IZZY move very quickly like 15-20 mph in what ever direction he goes......anybody N or even ENE of the storm when that happens remains vulnerable IMO...
I think it is entirely possible for all this to play itself out by Monday, and would be surprised if it is still around Tuesday or certainly Wednesday.

--------------------
doug

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	CFHC	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:12 PM
We have and EYE....	Cocoa Beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:11 PM
Eye does seem to be forming	Cocoa beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:46 PM
I am thinking.........	SirCane	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:02 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	MikeC	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:31 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:41 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:21 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	PaulyAce2002	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:53 PM
Re: CLimatology... Sir Cane	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:41 PM
haha..sir cane u always were adorable	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:41 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:31 PM
Round and Round he goes...	Cocoa Beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:46 PM
WOW - 99 people on line...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:01 PM
Re: WOW - 99 people on line...	PaulyAce2002	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:07 PM
May go anywhere	Cycloneye	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:17 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:58 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	PaulyAce2002	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:13 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:49 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:20 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:24 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	doug	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:42 PM
Hey Doug...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:08 PM
Re: Hey Doug...	Justin in Miami	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:14 PM
Where else?	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:32 PM
What are the upper influences doing?	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:42 PM
Steve	ShawnS	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:46 PM
well...	Brett	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:58 PM
Re: well...	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:22 PM
Subtle key	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM
Re: well...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:11 PM
East of Youth???	Cocoa Beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:32 PM
Re: East of Youth???	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:36 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:42 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Kimster	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:33 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Marktropic	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:52 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Joe	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:05 PM
Catching up/morning thoughts...	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:29 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:10 PM
NWS Miami	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:02 PM
Re: NWS Miami	Marktropic	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:43 PM
Re: NWS Miami	ShawnS	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:06 PM
Re: NWS Miami	Volusia Mike	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:12 PM
Re: NWS Miami	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:19 PM
track and intensity	Rickoshade	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:30 PM
Thanks Rick...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:35 PM
Just for Kicks the 12Z NOGAPS	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:29 PM
Thanks Jason for the vortex info	Cycloneye	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:37 PM
Re: Thanks Rick...	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:28 PM
LOL...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:39 PM
Re: LOL...	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:56 PM
Re: LOL...	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 09:04 PM
Re: New user	LadyStorm	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:36 PM
Re: Thanks Rick...	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:03 PM
This could be anyone's storm....	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:17 PM
I dunno	Brett	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:37 PM
Re: I dunno	VolusiaMike	Thu Sep 19 2002 11:34 PM
This could be anyone's storm was by me.	Kevin	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:20 PM
NHC's Thoughts from 5AM Discussion Yesterday......	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:48 PM
Re: NHC's Thoughts from 5AM Discussion Yesterday......	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:07 PM
Steve	Rickoshade	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:48 PM
Steve	Rickoshade	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:47 PM
Rick	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:51 PM
Re: NWS Miami	ShawnS	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:19 PM
An interesting off the record note from a chief met friend in SC...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:12 PM
Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:28 PM
Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night	Joe	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:32 PM
Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:44 PM
Vortex message : HUH?	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:49 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	Joe	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:50 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:55 PM
IFR Sat.	Marktropic	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:12 PM
you know..	HanKFranK	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:39 PM
Re: you know../We have a cane...	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:42 PM
Model info...	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:55 PM
Re: you know..	BabyCat	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:41 PM
Re: IFR Sat.	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:17 PM
New Recon...Pressure drops and higher winds...	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:20 PM
Re: New Recon...Pressure drops and higher winds...	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:23 PM
Major league convective burst!	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:00 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:59 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:10 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	caneman	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:03 PM
Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night	Joe	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:47 PM
Re: NWS Miami	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:11 PM
Re: NWS Miami	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:10 PM
Re: East of Youth???	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:58 PM
Test	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:04 PM
Re: Test	Cocoa Beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:09 PM
Re: well...	Anonymousnickd	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM
Re: well...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM
Re: well...	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:23 PM
Re: well...	Anonymousnickd	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:36 PM
Re: well...	Anonymousnickd	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:38 PM
Re: Hey Doug...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:26 PM
Models are going to be a problem....	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:14 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:14 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:31 PM
izzy	rick in mobile	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:26 PM
Re: izzy	FlaRebel	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:29 PM
Re: izzy	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:44 PM
Re: izzy	bsnyder	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:04 PM
bsnyder	StormHound	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:25 PM
Re: Brett	StormHound	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:30 PM
Re: izzy	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:51 PM
Re: izzy	JustMe	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:07 PM
Re: izzy	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:40 PM
Re: izzy	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:11 PM
I don't see Cat 5	StormHound	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:41 PM
Re: I don't see Cat 5	doug	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:12 PM
Re: izzy	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:35 PM
Izzy	Southern4sure	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:28 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	tom5r	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:13 PM

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