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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
you know..
      Thu Sep 19 2002 04:39 PM

you know you're desperate to see the hurricane coming your way when every little jog in your direction has you betting it's a new course. well.. much as i'd like to think i have a good bit of this storm figure out (comparatively).. little things keep happening a little different than i expect. for one, after going mostly nnw yesterday, it is going mostly wnw today. for two, the intensity right now is at marginal hurricane.. no rapid intensification.
well, right now im just going to stick with earlier hypotheses and not bother trying to calibrate what is already a crude enough forecast.
jason the met from pc, i have some questions. im fairly familiar with the global models, and mostly use them for predicting where systems will form, not how they will behave once they do. and i understand about the gfdl being a more localized, attuned tropical model. however, curious to know what to make of the nhc model suite. well, there are only about four that i bother accessing, but the bamd, bamm, a98e.. some climo model i think... that bunch.. what should i make of them? im not sure what beta advection (besides it being some thermodynamic energy transfer thing) is, or what the innate characteristics of any of the models are, but as far as knowing when the nhc suite is money and when it isnt.. how should i interpret this stuff?
anyhow.. as this system goes further west and less to the north, the thought that those SW into mexico global runs are seeing the future keeps recurring. the other thought i keep having is that this system could still be around a week from now.
asides: watch off the east coast for a hybrid storm. most of the globals have that upper system bastardi has been calling to cut off all week sending a surface reflection back to the mid atlantic.
central atlantic has an upper trough with a surface reflection.. doubt that will do anything.
still waves coming across, but environment out there is bad and shouldnt improve a whole lot.. season might be over for the southeast atlantic.
one other thing: eastpac system is trying to develop south of mexico. if it deepens, could have upstream consequences for isidore.
HF 2031z19september

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength CFHCAdministrator Thu Sep 19 2002 04:39 PM
. * * We have and EYE.... Cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:11 PM
. * * Eye does seem to be forming Cocoa beach   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:46 PM
. * * I am thinking......... SirCane   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength PaulyAce2002   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:53 PM
. * * Re: CLimatology... Sir Cane Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:41 PM
. * * haha..sir cane u always were adorable Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:31 PM
. * * Round and Round he goes... Cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:46 AM
. * * WOW - 99 people on line... Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:01 PM
. * * Re: WOW - 99 people on line... PaulyAce2002   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:07 PM
. * * May go anywhere Cycloneye   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Round and Round he goes... andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Round and Round he goes... PaulyAce2002   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Round and Round he goes... Rasvar   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Round and Round he goes... scottsvb   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Round and Round he goes... scottsvb   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Round and Round he goes... doug   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:42 PM
. * * Hey Doug... Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Hey Doug... Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:14 PM
. * * Where else? Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:32 PM
. * * What are the upper influences doing? Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:42 PM
. * * Steve ShawnS   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:46 PM
. * * well... Brett   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:58 PM
. * * Re: well... Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:22 PM
. * * Subtle key Rasvar   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:29 PM
. * * Re: well... scottsvb   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:11 PM
. * * East of Youth??? Cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:32 PM
. * * Re: East of Youth??? scottsvb   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:36 PM
. * * Re: East of Youth??? Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:42 PM
. * * Re: East of Youth??? Kimster   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:33 PM
. * * Re: East of Youth??? Marktropic   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:52 PM
. * * Re: East of Youth??? Joe   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:05 PM
. * * Catching up/morning thoughts... wxman007   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:29 PM
. * * Re: East of Youth??? Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:10 PM
. * * NWS Miami Colleen A.   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:02 PM
. * * Re: NWS Miami Marktropic   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:43 PM
. * * Re: NWS Miami ShawnS   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:06 PM
. * * Re: NWS Miami Volusia Mike   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:12 PM
. * * Re: NWS Miami Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:19 PM
. * * track and intensity Rickoshade   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:30 PM
. * * Thanks Rick... Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:35 PM
. * * Just for Kicks the 12Z NOGAPS Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:29 PM
. * * Thanks Jason for the vortex info Cycloneye   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Rick... andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:28 PM
. * * LOL... Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Re: LOL... andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:56 PM
. * * Re: LOL... andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 05:04 PM
. * * Re: New user LadyStorm   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Rick... Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:03 PM
. * * This could be anyone's storm.... Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:17 PM
. * * I dunno Brett   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:37 PM
. * * Re: I dunno VolusiaMike   Thu Sep 19 2002 07:34 PM
. * * This could be anyone's storm was by me. Kevin   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:20 PM
. * * NHC's Thoughts from 5AM Discussion Yesterday...... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:48 PM
. * * Re: NHC's Thoughts from 5AM Discussion Yesterday...... andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:07 PM
. * * Steve Rickoshade   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:48 PM
. * * Steve Rickoshade   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:47 PM
. * * Rick Colleen A.   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Re: NWS Miami ShawnS   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:19 PM
. * * An interesting off the record note from a chief met friend in SC... Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:12 PM
. * * Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night Joe   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:44 PM
. * * Vortex message : HUH? Rasvar   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Vortex message : HUH? Joe   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Vortex message : HUH? Colleen A.   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:55 PM
. * * IFR Sat. Marktropic   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:12 PM
. * * you know.. HanKFranK   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Re: you know../We have a cane... wxman007   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:42 PM
. * * Model info... wxman007   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:55 PM
. * * Re: you know.. BabyCat   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:41 PM
. * * Re: IFR Sat. Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:17 PM
. * * New Recon...Pressure drops and higher winds... wxman007   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:20 PM
. * * Re: New Recon...Pressure drops and higher winds... Rasvar   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:23 PM
. * * Major league convective burst! Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Vortex message : HUH? wxman007   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Vortex message : HUH? Rasvar   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Vortex message : HUH? caneman   Thu Sep 19 2002 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night Joe   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:47 PM
. * * Re: NWS Miami andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:11 PM
. * * Re: NWS Miami scottsvb   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:10 PM
. * * Re: East of Youth??? andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:58 PM
. * * Test Colleen A.   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Test Cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:09 PM
. * * Re: well... Anonymousnickd   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:29 PM
. * * Re: well... scottsvb   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:29 PM
. * * Re: well... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 19 2002 03:23 PM
. * * Re: well... Anonymousnickd   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:36 PM
. * * Re: well... Anonymousnickd   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Hey Doug... scottsvb   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:26 PM
. * * Models are going to be a problem.... Rasvar   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength andy1tom   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength Rasvar   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:31 AM
. * * izzy rick in mobile   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:26 AM
. * * Re: izzy FlaRebel   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:29 AM
. * * Re: izzy Colleen A.   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:44 PM
. * * Re: izzy bsnyder   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:04 PM
. * * bsnyder StormHound   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Brett StormHound   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:30 PM
. * * Re: izzy Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:51 PM
. * * Re: izzy JustMe   Thu Sep 19 2002 02:07 PM
. * * Re: izzy Colleen A.   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:40 PM
. * * Re: izzy Anonymous   Thu Sep 19 2002 01:11 PM
. * * I don't see Cat 5 StormHound   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:41 AM
. * * Re: I don't see Cat 5 doug   Thu Sep 19 2002 12:12 PM
. * * Re: izzy Steve   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:35 AM
. * * Izzy Southern4sure   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength tom5r   Thu Sep 19 2002 11:13 AM

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