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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

you know..
Thu Sep 19 2002 08:39 PM

you know you're desperate to see the hurricane coming your way when every little jog in your direction has you betting it's a new course. well.. much as i'd like to think i have a good bit of this storm figure out (comparatively).. little things keep happening a little different than i expect. for one, after going mostly nnw yesterday, it is going mostly wnw today. for two, the intensity right now is at marginal hurricane.. no rapid intensification.
well, right now im just going to stick with earlier hypotheses and not bother trying to calibrate what is already a crude enough forecast.
jason the met from pc, i have some questions. im fairly familiar with the global models, and mostly use them for predicting where systems will form, not how they will behave once they do. and i understand about the gfdl being a more localized, attuned tropical model. however, curious to know what to make of the nhc model suite. well, there are only about four that i bother accessing, but the bamd, bamm, a98e.. some climo model i think... that bunch.. what should i make of them? im not sure what beta advection (besides it being some thermodynamic energy transfer thing) is, or what the innate characteristics of any of the models are, but as far as knowing when the nhc suite is money and when it isnt.. how should i interpret this stuff?
anyhow.. as this system goes further west and less to the north, the thought that those SW into mexico global runs are seeing the future keeps recurring. the other thought i keep having is that this system could still be around a week from now.
asides: watch off the east coast for a hybrid storm. most of the globals have that upper system bastardi has been calling to cut off all week sending a surface reflection back to the mid atlantic.
central atlantic has an upper trough with a surface reflection.. doubt that will do anything.
still waves coming across, but environment out there is bad and shouldnt improve a whole lot.. season might be over for the southeast atlantic.
one other thing: eastpac system is trying to develop south of mexico. if it deepens, could have upstream consequences for isidore.
HF 2031z19september

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	CFHC	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:39 PM
We have and EYE....	Cocoa Beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:11 PM
Eye does seem to be forming	Cocoa beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:46 PM
I am thinking.........	SirCane	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:02 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	MikeC	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:31 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:41 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:21 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	PaulyAce2002	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:53 PM
Re: CLimatology... Sir Cane	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:41 PM
haha..sir cane u always were adorable	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:41 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:31 PM
Round and Round he goes...	Cocoa Beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:46 PM
WOW - 99 people on line...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:01 PM
Re: WOW - 99 people on line...	PaulyAce2002	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:07 PM
May go anywhere	Cycloneye	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:17 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:58 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	PaulyAce2002	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:13 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:49 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:20 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:24 PM
Re: Round and Round he goes...	doug	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:42 PM
Hey Doug...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:08 PM
Re: Hey Doug...	Justin in Miami	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:14 PM
Where else?	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:32 PM
What are the upper influences doing?	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:42 PM
Steve	ShawnS	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:46 PM
well...	Brett	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:58 PM
Re: well...	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:22 PM
Subtle key	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM
Re: well...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:11 PM
East of Youth???	Cocoa Beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:32 PM
Re: East of Youth???	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:36 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:42 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Kimster	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:33 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Marktropic	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:52 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Joe	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:05 PM
Catching up/morning thoughts...	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:29 PM
Re: East of Youth???	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:10 PM
NWS Miami	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:02 PM
Re: NWS Miami	Marktropic	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:43 PM
Re: NWS Miami	ShawnS	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:06 PM
Re: NWS Miami	Volusia Mike	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:12 PM
Re: NWS Miami	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:19 PM
track and intensity	Rickoshade	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:30 PM
Thanks Rick...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:35 PM
Just for Kicks the 12Z NOGAPS	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:29 PM
Thanks Jason for the vortex info	Cycloneye	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:37 PM
Re: Thanks Rick...	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:28 PM
LOL...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:39 PM
Re: LOL...	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:56 PM
Re: LOL...	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 09:04 PM
Re: New user	LadyStorm	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:36 PM
Re: Thanks Rick...	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:03 PM
This could be anyone's storm....	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:17 PM
I dunno	Brett	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:37 PM
Re: I dunno	VolusiaMike	Thu Sep 19 2002 11:34 PM
This could be anyone's storm was by me.	Kevin	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:20 PM
NHC's Thoughts from 5AM Discussion Yesterday......	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:48 PM
Re: NHC's Thoughts from 5AM Discussion Yesterday......	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:07 PM
Steve	Rickoshade	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:48 PM
Steve	Rickoshade	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:47 PM
Rick	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:51 PM
Re: NWS Miami	ShawnS	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:19 PM
An interesting off the record note from a chief met friend in SC...	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:12 PM
Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:28 PM
Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night	Joe	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:32 PM
Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:44 PM
Vortex message : HUH?	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:49 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	Joe	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:50 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:55 PM
IFR Sat.	Marktropic	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:12 PM
you know..	HanKFranK	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:39 PM
Re: you know../We have a cane...	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:42 PM
Model info...	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:55 PM
Re: you know..	BabyCat	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:41 PM
Re: IFR Sat.	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:17 PM
New Recon...Pressure drops and higher winds...	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:20 PM
Re: New Recon...Pressure drops and higher winds...	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:23 PM
Major league convective burst!	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:00 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	wxman007	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:59 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:10 PM
Re: Vortex message : HUH?	caneman	Thu Sep 19 2002 08:03 PM
Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night	Joe	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:47 PM
Re: NWS Miami	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:11 PM
Re: NWS Miami	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:10 PM
Re: East of Youth???	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:58 PM
Test	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:04 PM
Re: Test	Cocoa Beach	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:09 PM
Re: well...	Anonymousnickd	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM
Re: well...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM
Re: well...	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 07:23 PM
Re: well...	Anonymousnickd	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:36 PM
Re: well...	Anonymousnickd	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:38 PM
Re: Hey Doug...	scottsvb	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:26 PM
Models are going to be a problem....	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:14 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	andy1tom	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:14 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	Rasvar	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:31 PM
izzy	rick in mobile	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:26 PM
Re: izzy	FlaRebel	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:29 PM
Re: izzy	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:44 PM
Re: izzy	bsnyder	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:04 PM
bsnyder	StormHound	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:25 PM
Re: Brett	StormHound	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:30 PM
Re: izzy	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:51 PM
Re: izzy	JustMe	Thu Sep 19 2002 06:07 PM
Re: izzy	Colleen A.	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:40 PM
Re: izzy	Anonymous	Thu Sep 19 2002 05:11 PM
I don't see Cat 5	StormHound	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:41 PM
Re: I don't see Cat 5	doug	Thu Sep 19 2002 04:12 PM
Re: izzy	Steve	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:35 PM
Izzy	Southern4sure	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:28 PM
Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength	tom5r	Thu Sep 19 2002 03:13 PM

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