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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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HanKFranK
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Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
lateniter
      Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM

emily: going to move pretty much like the nhc official says. initial intensity is too high.. long term intensity is too low. it may be a major hurricane at midmonth... don't know if there's a recorded precedent for that. future track mostly likely to threaten mexico. the 18z run of the gfdl is what i'd regard as the best example of track/intensity expected, shifted just south.
99L: i was thinking it would be a t.d. some time tomorrow, but this is uncertain. ssts will begin to pick up along its track tomorrow, but there is a large field of subsidence in its path. this will likely keep the convective pattern very sporadic... probably not enough to get this to a tropical cyclone. it also puts the future track in question.. the wave will work further west.. but its development chances are somewhat lower than before. then again, if/once it does develop it have an even lower chance of catching the trough in the central atlantic.
east of 99L: new wave, good cyclonic turning in the associated mcc that came with it. something else to watch if it persists... nothing on the models though.
HF 0552z14july

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily a Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Beaumont, TX   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ralphfl   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Big Red Machine   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Forecast Track danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:28 AM
. * * Emily Now a CAT 4 danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:10 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:37 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 jlauderdal   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:18 AM
. * * Dropsondes danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:04 AM
. * * Re: RECON HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ohioaninmiss   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ohioaninmiss   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ohioaninmiss   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Terra   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:23 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane firestar_1   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane 52255225   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane bn765   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Ryan   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane bn765   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane scottsvb   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane jaxmike   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Beaumont, TX   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ShanaTX   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Playa del carmen/Emily ftlaudbob   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Playa del carmen/Emily Rob1966   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Playa del carmen/Emily BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:17 PM
. * * Franklin? rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Franklin? Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Franklin? Steve H1   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:22 PM
. * * First Cat 5 of Season? Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:56 PM
. * * Kudos to the NHC and a few thoughts on Emily Bloodstar   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: First Cat 5 of Season? jlauderdal   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:19 PM
. * * Re: First Cat 5 of Season? Rabbit   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Franklin? Steve H1   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re:Models & Troph javlin   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Domino   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:25 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane OrlandoDan   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Ryan   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane 317288   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane trinibaje   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane HanKFranK   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Joe   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:02 AM
. * * Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:47 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog ralphfl   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog firestar_1   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Carnac predicts Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog scottsvb   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:40 PM
. * * Gilbert 1988 Cancun Weather Watcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 ftlaudbob   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Cancun Weather Watcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 jr928   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 TAZMAN   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Wink Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye WeatherNut   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye AgentB   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM
. * * not due west...a wobble Rick on boat in Mobile   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:35 PM
. * * I've noticed Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: I've noticed nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:00 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:08 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:08 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:32 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:08 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Ryan   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble bn765   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:35 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble nowhammies   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble richisurfs   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:56 PM
. * * central florida HanKFranK   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: central florida Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: central florida Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Emily Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Box Theory RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory Brad in Miami   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory h2ocean   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:40 PM
. * * Tracking info StormSurfer   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory richisurfs   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:08 PM
. * * models shift back right Frank P   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: models shift back right Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 PM
. * * Re: models shift back right Frank P   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: models shift back right Joe   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:18 PM
. * * Pressure still dropping Bloodstar   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: models shift back right Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: central florida Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:14 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:16 PM
. * * stuff to ponder HanKFranK   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Damage from Emily Allison   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Wave potential Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Wave potential nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:25 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Rabbit   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Steve H1   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:56 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog firestar_1   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog GuppieGrouper   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog ralphfl   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:33 AM
. * * This site Wxwatcher2   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog NewWatcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Shalafi   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog B.C.Francis   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog tpratch   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog tpratch   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:23 AM
. * * something else on evacuations Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Rich B   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:42 AM
. * * hurricane names Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Floridacane   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:14 PM
. * * Emily is looking to begin a more northly gig... Rick on boat in Mobile   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Steve H1   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog tpratch   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog AdvAutoBob   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog NewWatcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog NewWatcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog AgentB   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog AgentB   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Big Red Machine   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog jr928   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog TDW   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:07 AM
. * * did anyone read this about Dennis's effect in the FLA keys? Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Katie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:23 AM
. * * ralphfl Rick on boat in Mobile   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: ralphfl HurricaneSteph   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: ralphfl jbmusic   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog ralphfl   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Ralphfl recmod   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog NewWatcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:18 AM
. * * lateniter HanKFranK   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:29 PM

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