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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Idalia) , Major: 309 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 309 (Idalia) Major: 309 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#26 4:00 am EDT
19.6N 85.5W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 964mb
Moving:
W at 16 mph
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley?
      Thu Jul 14 2005 01:04 AM

Just as a heads-up, the primary lines on those maps are what we call streamlines. But, you have the right call on what it means: the tighter they are, generally the stronger the winds.

Emily could go the same way as Charley, but the current or forecast conditions do not favor it. This is subject to change, but the model guidance has been pretty consistent in maintaining the storm on a westward path towards the western Gulf in about 4-5 days.

The following website uses research done into the tracks of tropical cyclones to come up with the best "steering layer" to use when trying to make a track forecast. As Danny mentioned, the upper levels are better for deeper storms, while the lower levels are better for weaker ones; the best layer for any given storm (based off of pressure) is noted on the page: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

Hope this helps!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Could Emily go the same way as Charley? BullitNutz Thu Jul 14 2005 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:29 PM

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