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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 337
This site
      Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM

Thanks everyone for participating in this forum.

Just a note to those that think Emily will suddenly turn toward Florida.
There are weather dynamics that create the conditions that allow these storms
to turn. Right now, there is a ridge of high pressure North of Emily which will keep her moving WNW.
Last year Charley for example was forecast to come in over Tampa Bay.
The trough picked charley up a bit sooner than predicted but the turn was always in the forecast and within the forecast "cone".

I always pay attention to the NHC advisories and when a storm is heading in my general direction, I keep in mind that it can turn. But to panic and worry that each storm is coming to your area or try and wishcast it to do so only creates confusion and needless frustration.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily a Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Beaumont, TX   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ralphfl   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Big Red Machine   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Forecast Track danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:28 AM
. * * Emily Now a CAT 4 danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:10 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:37 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 jlauderdal   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:18 AM
. * * Dropsondes danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:04 AM
. * * Re: RECON HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ohioaninmiss   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ohioaninmiss   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ohioaninmiss   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Terra   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:23 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane firestar_1   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane 52255225   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane bn765   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Ryan   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane bn765   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane scottsvb   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane jaxmike   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Beaumont, TX   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ShanaTX   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Playa del carmen/Emily ftlaudbob   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Playa del carmen/Emily Rob1966   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Playa del carmen/Emily BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:17 PM
. * * Franklin? rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Franklin? Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Franklin? Steve H1   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:22 PM
. * * First Cat 5 of Season? Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:56 PM
. * * Kudos to the NHC and a few thoughts on Emily Bloodstar   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: First Cat 5 of Season? jlauderdal   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:19 PM
. * * Re: First Cat 5 of Season? Rabbit   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Franklin? Steve H1   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re:Models & Troph javlin   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Domino   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:25 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane OrlandoDan   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Ryan   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane 317288   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane trinibaje   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane HanKFranK   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane Joe   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:02 AM
. * * Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:47 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog ralphfl   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog firestar_1   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Carnac predicts Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog scottsvb   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:40 PM
. * * Gilbert 1988 Cancun Weather Watcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 ftlaudbob   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Cancun Weather Watcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 jr928   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 TAZMAN   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Wink Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye WeatherNut   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye AgentB   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM
. * * not due west...a wobble Rick on boat in Mobile   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:35 PM
. * * I've noticed Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: I've noticed nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:00 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:08 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:08 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:32 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:08 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Ryan   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble bn765   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:35 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble nowhammies   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble richisurfs   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:56 PM
. * * central florida HanKFranK   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: central florida Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: central florida Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Emily Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Box Theory RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory Brad in Miami   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory h2ocean   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:40 PM
. * * Tracking info StormSurfer   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory richisurfs   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Box Theory Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:08 PM
. * * models shift back right Frank P   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: models shift back right Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 PM
. * * Re: models shift back right Frank P   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: models shift back right Joe   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:18 PM
. * * Pressure still dropping Bloodstar   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: models shift back right Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: central florida Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:14 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:16 PM
. * * stuff to ponder HanKFranK   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Damage from Emily Allison   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Wave potential Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Wave potential nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:25 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: not due west...a wobble Rabbit   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily's eye Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Keith234   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Gilbert 1988 Steve H1   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:56 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog firestar_1   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog GuppieGrouper   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog ralphfl   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:33 AM
. * * This site Wxwatcher2   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog NewWatcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Shalafi   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Terra   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog B.C.Francis   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog tpratch   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog tpratch   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:23 AM
. * * something else on evacuations Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Rich B   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog drcrazibob   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:42 AM
. * * hurricane names Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Floridacane   Thu Jul 14 2005 02:14 PM
. * * Emily is looking to begin a more northly gig... Rick on boat in Mobile   Thu Jul 14 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog rmbjoe1954   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Steve H1   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog tpratch   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog AdvAutoBob   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog NewWatcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog NewWatcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog AgentB   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog AgentB   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Big Red Machine   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog jr928   Thu Jul 14 2005 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Tazmanian93   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog nl   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog TDW   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Lysis   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:07 AM
. * * did anyone read this about Dennis's effect in the FLA keys? Margie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog Katie   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:23 AM
. * * ralphfl Rick on boat in Mobile   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: ralphfl HurricaneSteph   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: ralphfl jbmusic   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog ralphfl   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Ralphfl recmod   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog NewWatcher   Thu Jul 14 2005 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 07:18 AM
. * * lateniter HanKFranK   Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Emily a Hurricane CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:29 PM

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