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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Bloodstar
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ

Kudos to the NHC and a few thoughts on Emily
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:34 PM

So far this year They have done an excellent job of predicting where the storms are headed. Sure there are fluctuations, but as is stressed here to *no* end, The NHC is the source. They are the group to listen to and to base your decisions on.

We have some really smart and intelligent people here, and the meterologists here are as solid as they come. But honestly, most of us are not pros, we're here as hobbiests who have a fascination, if not an outright love of hurricanes. (if you experience enough of them, I'm sure that love turns into a love/hate, but that's another story

)

So, I just wanted to give a thank you to the NHC for their hard work.

Ok, On to Emily, As has been mentioned previously, there is nothing really coming down to break the ridge that's holding Emily to a WNW course, however it looks like there could be something pushing down into TX and LA on Saturday. If it's able to erode the ridge, it's possible the storm could shift more to the NW. That's the only thing I can see that *might* affect the forecast path. The storm (and the season for that matter) seems to be throwing climatology out the window so there goes the hurricane graveyard theory.

There's still a few days left, but Anyone in the yucatan is hopefully making the preparations they need to make for a major hurricane. I think the NHC is on target here, but if the storm does shift, I can see landfall happening between Corpus Christi and Houston. Water is warm, 29 - 31 degrees. I'm horrible at making intensity predictions, but if I had to put myself on the record, if it folows the NHC path as expected, 120 kts landfall on the yucatan, and recovering to hit mexico at 105kts. If it treks north, It'll hit harder.

The chances of it hitting Florida are about 1 in 100, if that high.

Just my thoughts
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Emily a Hurricane	MikeC	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:34 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Beaumont, TX	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:44 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	ralphfl	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:58 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Big Red Machine	Fri Jul 15 2005 01:09 AM
Forecast Track	danielw	Fri Jul 15 2005 01:28 AM
Emily Now a CAT 4	danielw	Fri Jul 15 2005 01:48 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	ShanaTX	Fri Jul 15 2005 01:53 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	danielw	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:02 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	HCW	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:01 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	ShanaTX	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:03 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	HCW	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:10 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	ShanaTX	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:13 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:16 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:25 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	danielw	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:37 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Jul 15 2005 02:41 AM
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4	jlauderdal	Fri Jul 15 2005 07:18 AM
Dropsondes	danielw	Fri Jul 15 2005 03:04 AM
Re: RECON	HCW	Fri Jul 15 2005 01:49 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	ohioaninmiss	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:00 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	drcrazibob	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:11 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	ohioaninmiss	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:12 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	ohioaninmiss	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:09 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Terra	Fri Jul 15 2005 07:23 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	firestar_1	Fri Jul 15 2005 07:46 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	HCW	Fri Jul 15 2005 10:39 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	52255225	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:13 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	bn765	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:20 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:33 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Ryan	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:39 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	bn765	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	scottsvb	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:37 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	jaxmike	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:00 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Beaumont, TX	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:20 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	drcrazibob	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:27 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	ShanaTX	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 PM
Playa del carmen/Emily	ftlaudbob	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:49 PM
Re: Playa del carmen/Emily	Rob1966	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:40 PM
Re: Playa del carmen/Emily	BullitNutz	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:41 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:17 PM
Franklin?	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:32 PM
Re: Franklin?	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:05 PM
Re: Franklin?	Steve H1	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:22 PM
First Cat 5 of Season?	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:56 PM
Kudos to the NHC and a few thoughts on Emily	Bloodstar	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:34 PM
Re: First Cat 5 of Season?	jlauderdal	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:19 PM
Re: First Cat 5 of Season?	Rabbit	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:22 PM
Re: Franklin?	Steve H1	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:55 PM
Re:Models & Troph	javlin	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Domino	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:44 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	danielw	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:25 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	OrlandoDan	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:03 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Ryan	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	317288	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:58 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	trinibaje	Wed Jul 13 2005 11:28 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	ftlaudbob	Wed Jul 13 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	javlin	Wed Jul 13 2005 11:25 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	HanKFranK	Wed Jul 13 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	Joe	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:02 AM
Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	danielw	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:20 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Terra	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:30 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:36 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	BullitNutz	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Terra	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:41 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	BullitNutz	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:47 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Terra	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:52 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:58 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:02 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	ralphfl	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:12 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:55 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:08 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:17 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	firestar_1	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:12 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:21 PM
Carnac predicts	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:20 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:16 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:26 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	scottsvb	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:32 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:28 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Keith234	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:40 PM
Gilbert 1988	Cancun Weather Watcher	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	ftlaudbob	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:01 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:05 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:07 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:04 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	Cancun Weather Watcher	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:26 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	jr928	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:39 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:40 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:44 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	TAZMAN	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:01 PM
Wink	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Emily's eye	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:11 PM
Re: Emily's eye	WeatherNut	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:44 PM
Re: Emily's eye	AgentB	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM
not due west...a wobble	Rick on boat in Mobile	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:35 PM
I've noticed	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:45 PM
Re: I've noticed	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:48 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:40 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Keith234	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:00 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:08 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Keith234	Thu Jul 14 2005 05:08 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:07 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Keith234	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:55 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:32 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:35 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:09 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:08 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Ryan	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:40 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	drcrazibob	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:48 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	bn765	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:32 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Keith234	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:54 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:35 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	nowhammies	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:49 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	richisurfs	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:56 PM
central florida	HanKFranK	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:42 PM
Re: central florida	Terra	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:58 PM
Re: central florida	Keith234	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:03 PM
Emily	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:17 PM
Box Theory	RedingtonBeachGuy	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:53 PM
Re: Box Theory	Brad in Miami	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:58 PM
Re: Box Theory	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:57 PM
Re: Box Theory	h2ocean	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:40 PM
Tracking info	StormSurfer	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:49 PM
Re: Box Theory	richisurfs	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:09 PM
Re: Box Theory	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:08 PM
models shift back right	Frank P	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:12 PM
Re: models shift back right	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 PM
Re: models shift back right	Frank P	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:52 PM
Re: models shift back right	Joe	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:18 PM
Pressure still dropping	Bloodstar	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:39 PM
Re: models shift back right	Keith234	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:46 PM
Re: central florida	Terra	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:14 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:16 PM
stuff to ponder	HanKFranK	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:28 PM
Damage from Emily	Allison	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:26 PM
Wave potential	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:01 PM
Re: Wave potential	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:09 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:25 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:35 PM
Re: not due west...a wobble	Rabbit	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM
Re: Emily's eye	BullitNutz	Thu Jul 14 2005 03:46 PM
Re: Emily's eye	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	Keith234	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Gilbert 1988	Steve H1	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:03 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	BullitNutz	Thu Jul 14 2005 06:56 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	firestar_1	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:41 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:37 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	GuppieGrouper	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:15 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:38 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	ralphfl	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:56 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Clark	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:05 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	drcrazibob	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:33 AM
This site	Wxwatcher2	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	NewWatcher	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:38 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:51 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Shalafi	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:13 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Terra	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	B.C.Francis	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:48 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:30 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:39 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:57 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	tpratch	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:12 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:52 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	tpratch	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:07 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:23 AM
something else on evacuations	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Rich B	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:32 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	drcrazibob	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:38 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:42 AM
hurricane names	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Floridacane	Thu Jul 14 2005 02:14 PM
Emily is looking to begin a more northly gig...	Rick on boat in Mobile	Thu Jul 14 2005 01:07 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:28 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:30 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:43 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:50 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	rmbjoe1954	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:55 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:03 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Steve H1	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:21 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	tpratch	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:09 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:26 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:41 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	AdvAutoBob	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:29 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:44 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	NewWatcher	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:01 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:18 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:50 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:53 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:22 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:24 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	NewWatcher	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:27 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:33 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	AgentB	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:57 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	AgentB	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:08 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:11 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Big Red Machine	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:15 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	jr928	Thu Jul 14 2005 11:24 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Tazmanian93	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:37 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:54 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:56 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	nl	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:03 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	TDW	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:09 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Lysis	Thu Jul 14 2005 10:07 AM
did anyone read this about Dennis's effect in the FLA keys?	Margie	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:32 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	Katie	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:23 AM
ralphfl	Rick on boat in Mobile	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:17 AM
Re: ralphfl	HurricaneSteph	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:24 AM
Re: ralphfl	jbmusic	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:31 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	ralphfl	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:59 AM
Ralphfl	recmod	Thu Jul 14 2005 09:53 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	NewWatcher	Thu Jul 14 2005 08:52 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog	BullitNutz	Thu Jul 14 2005 07:18 AM
lateniter	HanKFranK	Thu Jul 14 2005 12:53 AM
Re: Emily a Hurricane	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Wed Jul 13 2005 11:29 PM

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