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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Concentric Eyewalls
      Sat Jul 16 2005 06:07 AM

i'm not even sure specifically.. but it means weakening. in the context of the eyewall replacement cycles that makes sense. i was moving all my stuff to a new apartment today and bellsouth cut my phone/dsl early (incompetents) and didn't hook it up at my new place yet (three days advance... incompetents)... so i was high and dry until getting back to my folks place this evening. last i saw the other night emily was a 4, got back to see it this evening it had been down to 2 and was a 3.. after going to grab the new harry potter for my kid sister (ok i admit it i'll read it too) it's a 4... small core hurricanes like this spin up and down as their eyewalls die out and return... like a short-charged phoenix. cat 4s with pressures in the 950s are tightly wound and small by definition... a storm of comparable compactness and a pressure in the 920s would be a camille-esque 5. it's possible it'll bottom out at 5 in one of its cycles later, but not terribly likely. one thing emily has done consistently is lunge to the left and not ever turn as hard right as forecast, so i'm really skeptical about texas. granted it looks to be getting into an area where the deep layer flow will push it more wnw, but all the westward lunges have put emily well south of the earlier projected tracks. this is more than likely all the way a mexico problem. crossing the yucatan should really knock the wind out of emily, also, due to it's compactness and lower resiliency. still a 90% mexico 10% texas worry. probably do it's worst on the yucatan coast between chetumal and cozumel (hit around felipe carrillo puerto), spin down to a ts/cat 1, then spin back up to 3-ish by its second landfall somewhere around la pesca or soto la marina. due to size and likely impact to rural parts of mexico, even if it's a 4 it probably won't be a major killer or destroyer of property. if it gets up to texas and hits anywhere aside from the king ranch/kenedy county it's a different story, in terms of monetary impact. early to make this call with a whole lot of confidence, but emily's most likely path shouldn't make it very sensational or infamous.
still eyeballing 99L as it is undergoing the strongest sw shear we've seen a system take so far this season. the vortmax/near closed low that's accompanied this system and arguably been a closed low at times is looking very open and diffuse... the system should get into the lull of the trough axis and into a weaker/northerly shear environment tomorrow and the following day.. if enough of the disturbance stays coherent and doesnt shear off n/ne then the conditions late in the weekend going into early next week will finally give this a shot at developing. the vorticity with this system at the low to mid levels has been moving stubbornly westward, and hasn't shown proclivity to curve up between the ridges as the globals were suggesting. i'd say 30-70 it survives to get going.. not the most likely event, but definitely trouble if it does. there's enough ridging near the east coast to send this one hurtling westward in a steadily intensifying mode... better hope this thing doesn't become franklin.
subsequent wave petered out, though it has a good signature aloft. it will bumble along westward, perhaps acting up as it gets closer to the islands. the next wave should come off tomorrow. it is notable that neither is garnering model support. as a matter of fact nothing shown in the models looks very threatening outside of emily, with meager support for 99L. emily may avoid being a u.s. problem.. a system called franklin developing out of 99L most likely would be a problem.
HF 0706z16july

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* Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Sat Jul 16 2005 06:07 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica dearolecleo   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Allison   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica WeatherNLU   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:06 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica pcola   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:20 AM
. * * New Forums danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:26 AM
. * * Re: New Forums KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:02 AM
. * * Re: New Forums MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:06 AM
. * * Re: New Forums KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:12 AM
. * * Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:30 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 05:27 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 05:37 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:07 AM
. * * Re: franklin info jusforsean   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: franklin info MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls ShanaTX   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:50 AM
. * * Nights danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls Terra   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:49 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls MikeInCorpus   Sat Jul 16 2005 07:09 AM
. * * Emily danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 07:17 AM
. * * Emily-Late Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 07:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily-Late Recon Update ShanaTX   Sat Jul 16 2005 08:40 AM
. * * 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:14 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Clark   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited SeeSaw03   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:50 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:50 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:11 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:20 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited ftlaudbob   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:38 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited rmbjoe1954   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:25 AM
. * * 99L... watch it tomorrow HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 07:08 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:16 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 05:47 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Intermediate Advisory-edited danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls tpratch   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:40 AM
. * * Lurking danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:42 AM
. * * Re: Lurking tpratch   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:45 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:37 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:52 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 05:11 AM
. * * Re: New Forums rdcrds   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:11 AM
. * * Re: New Forums Terra   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:37 AM
. * * Re: New Forums Clark   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:49 AM
. * * Re: New Forums drcrazibob   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:38 AM
. * * Re: New Forums 52255225   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:15 AM
. * * Re: New Forums 52255225   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:04 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica 52255225   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Terra   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:45 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica jrhurricane   Sat Jul 16 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica cjzydeco   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica cjzydeco   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica trinibaje   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Ed in Va   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan NewWatcher   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan pcola   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan AndyG   Fri Jul 15 2005 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Tropical Wave in Atlantic` CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave in Atlantic` Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 15 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Lightning Question RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 15 2005 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question gailwarning   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Lightning Question 52255225   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:13 AM
. * * Re: Lightning Question BobVee   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question gailwarning   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:14 AM
. * * Emily Discussion danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan FlaRebel   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica HumanCookie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica GuppieGrouper   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Frank P   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Wingman51   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica MadDog   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica AgentB   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica AgentB   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:13 PM
. * * Question about Emily Models Allison   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Question about Emily Models Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:40 PM
. * * RECON Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:43 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:47 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:09 AM
. * * Emily regains major hurricane status WeatherNLU   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite angelswatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite angelswatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Storm Cooper   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica nandav   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Ed G   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica nandav   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica NewWatcher   Fri Jul 15 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rabbit   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rabbit   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica doug   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:30 PM

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