Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Another day, another chance at Cat 5
Sun Jul 17 2005 09:16 AM
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Good morning everyone!
Well in a way it is a shame that Emily didn't get stronger because isn't it possible that could have changed the steering patterns a bit, and now it looks with the continued west movement, like a direct hit on Cozumel and Cancun. Last night I wondered about that but was too tired to make one more post. I had flhurricane fatigue.
And I realized why the warnings are going along the top of the peninsula as well - because of all the winds they will get from the N as Emily goes inland, if she lands close to the N tip. Weird to think of N winds as being a problem because they are onshore. Also I see how different the strengths are in the different quadrants, and that the N of the storm is so much stronger than the southern part. So it is really sad to see that the entire N part of the penisula is going to get hammered, especially the beautiful tourist area.
Well the first thing I did was look at the satellite to try to figure out what I could on my own, then read the advisories and discussions. I was surprised to see Emily looking so strong, stronger than I expected to see this morning, and again just so perfectly round. I guess it is "here we go again" because looking so good (except for the outflow to the S), and having warm water, it is possible she might still intensify. Still with all the land to the south and west, how can conditions be quite as good today as they were yesterday.
One thing I was confused about was if an ERC did take place, and it seems that it did, since the eye changed diameter and went eliptical before I went to sleep last night, then why is the resulting new eyewall only 10nm? I don't know very much about this but thought the resulting eyewall would be larger.
The eye doesn't look nearly as good as yesterday so I am assuming that the storm still has some reorg left to do to finish up the ERC cycle? Since pressure started dropping again I assume Emily is reorganizing now and we can expect to see her looking *better* on into the afternoon.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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