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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
emily beyond the yucatan, 99L
      Mon Jul 18 2005 06:59 AM

the fairy godmother got emily today, too. like dennis this storm isn't making landfall at peak intensity, though 135mph is nothing to relax about. storm should probably spin down to a 1/2 by late tomorrow when it slides off into the gulf... and deepen back to a 3 by mid tuesday. it may gain a little latitude as the shortwave slides by to the north on the continent.. models not showing a great deal of this.. then resume wnw course and probably hit extreme ne mexico a couple hours before sunrise on wednesday. may be edging cat 4 intensity by that time again. i don't buy quite the westerly bend nhc is advertising, but don't think it'll get up to texas either.
99L probably didn't survive the upper trough. the southern vortmax from earlier is popping some convection, oddly enough.. but it was the weak one that i didn't expect to survive. essentially no model support for future activity with this feature, but i've still got a shred of remaining concern that the part that made it through can regenerate. stranger things have happened, but this one is probably done.
weak model support for subsequent waves in the east atlantic to spin up. mild suggestion of an extratropical-origin fish spinner in the north atlantic also. after emily is done we may not see another july system, though right now i'd say that chances are slightly higher that something else will perk up before the month is out.
HF 0758z18july

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel MikeCAdministrator Mon Jul 18 2005 06:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel superfly   Mon Jul 18 2005 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2005 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel Clark   Mon Jul 18 2005 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel superfly   Mon Jul 18 2005 04:10 AM
. * * Wind Speed danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2005 04:19 AM
. * * RECON Vortex danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: RECON Vortex Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 04:22 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 03:45 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel nl   Mon Jul 18 2005 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2005 03:49 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 04:27 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel superfly   Mon Jul 18 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel superfly   Mon Jul 18 2005 05:24 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 05:31 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2005 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel ShanaTX   Mon Jul 18 2005 06:43 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel superfly   Mon Jul 18 2005 06:29 AM
. * * Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 06:39 AM
. * * Check this out Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 06:44 AM
. * * emily beyond the yucatan, 99L HanKFranK   Mon Jul 18 2005 06:59 AM
. * * Re: emily beyond the yucatan, 99L danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2005 07:13 AM
. * * Re: emily beyond the yucatan, 99L Margie   Mon Jul 18 2005 07:18 AM
. * * Data danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2005 07:49 AM

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