Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch

Here is how the PEOPLE at NWS are interperting what they see from the models...

EXTENDED FCST DISC VALID SUN SEP 22 2002 THRU THU SEP 26 2002
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
324 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

...MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STILL IS A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING WHAT
EFFECT DEVELOPING HURRICANE "ISIDORE" MIGHT HAVE ON THE MAINLAND OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES. EWD-DRIFTING STRONG UPPER RIDGES/POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE W COAST OF CANADA AND OVER
LABRADOR IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. IN BETWEEN...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF
WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VLY. THE UNANSWERED QUESTION REMAINS
HOW SHARP SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE BASE OF THIS TROF WILL BE...AND
WHETHER ANY OF THEM CAN PULL "ISIDORE" NWD INTO THE SERN STATES.

CONCERNING DEVELOPING HURRICANE "ISIDORE"....

DESPITE IT TAKING THE HURRICANE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (LEFT OF ITS
00Z/19 TRACK) BY DAY 5...THE NEW 12Z AVN RUN CHANGED OUR THINKING VERY
LITTLE FROM OUR 14Z RELEASE. THIS MORNING...I DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 06Z
AVN EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN
CONNECTION WITH "ISIDORE". OUR EXTRAPOLATION OF HURRICANE "ISIDORE"
FROM THE OFFICIAL 12Z/19 NHC 72HR POSITION CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE 00Z/19 UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL
HAD TAKEN A DECIDED TREND TOWARDS THE RIGHT FROM YESTERDAYS
TRACK. THEY FORECAST THE STORM INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 4-
5...THREATENING THE ERN GULF COAST...WRN FL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS BY DAY 6. THIS WAS IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH FAVORED THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE
CANADIAN MODEL. A QUICK LOOK AT NEW 12Z/19 AVN/UKMET/NOGAPS RUNS
MAY BE FAVORING A SWING OF THE PENDULUM BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH "ISIDORE" FOR DAYS 3-4...MORE IN LINE WITH
YESTERDAYS MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE NEW 12Z AVN SPINS UP ANOTHER TROPICAL SYS NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON
DAY 3 THEN DRIFTS IT NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS DEVELOPMENT AS
SPURIOUS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DAYS 3-7 OVER FL...THE
ERN GULF COAST...AND THE S ATLANTIC COAST. BUT WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT
OF THIS SCENARIO THAN WE WERE THIS MORNING GIVEN THE WWD TRENDS OF
THE 12Z/19 AVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET WITH "ISIDORE" DAYS 3-5.

So they are battling the flip-flop's of the model data as well...

And their Day 7 Surface map???

Day 7 sfc prog

Lending more creedance to the thought that even if we DO get a due W or SW motion, that we are still looking like a Gulf Coast strike...

--------------------
Jason Kelley

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