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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Isidore-an EXTREMELY tough call. And other tropical issues
      Fri Sep 20 2002 07:36 PM

Isidore is really P*ssing me off now. I'm getting a bit fed up with the wobbling...this is what is making this forecast impossible. Isidore won't move in one direction for more than 12 hours, it seems the movement is WNW for 12 hours and then NW for the next 12 hours...and so on. Anyone who says this is trivial needs to learn about wobbles...they make it difficult to forecast in the short-term, and the short-term usually dictates the longer-term. Given the fact the the trough is still hanging over Texas and Isidore is moving slowly WNW to NW, I believe we may just see an complete collapse of the steering currents by 48 hours.

I will warn Floridians of one thing though...if Isidore remains a strong hurricane (likely) and drifts westward at 23-24N, the trough comming down on Tuesday will move him more NW initally and the second trough on Wednesday may well turn Isidore back towards the NE and ENE towards Central Florida. Isidore may respond to these troughs very dramatically or may not respond at all. Out of all the uncertainty, however, I believe this one is likely to shoot back towards Florida, possibly even towards the peninsula because Isidore is staying at a lower latitude than earlier forecasted. But don't get me wrong...storms at 23-24N can usually be picked up by troughs easily. Everyone in the GOMEX needs to keep their eye on this regardless of what is forecasted.

Other tropical issues: The tropical wave 1600 hundred miles east of the Windwards is very well defined and HUGE in size as well. A high is building, and this will keep the wave on a W and WNW track through 72 hours. Although I think it is reasonable to think this would be around PR/Hispanola by late next week, Florida *MAY* have to eventually deal with Isidore. The last thing we would need after a storm like Isidore would be another storm.

The low SE of Bermuda may be upgraded to a subtropical or tropical depression today. As busy as things are, I'll leave this one up to the NHC. The concerns at home are far greater than these things.

Kevin

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 20 2002 07:36 PM
. * * Interesting week ahead. SirCane   Fri Sep 20 2002 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:49 PM
. * * STD #12 forms... Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:52 PM
. * * Isidore-an EXTREMELY tough call. And other tropical issues Kevin   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:36 PM
. * * Seems straight forward Rasvar   Fri Sep 20 2002 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch cyclone_head   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:00 PM
. * * well... Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:36 PM
. * * 12 is out there Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:41 PM
. * * Today's Extended Prog Discussion... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Today's Extended Prog Discussion... anonomyous   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Today's Extended Prog Discussion... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:31 PM
. * * well Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:46 PM
. * * EEK! Colleen A.   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:01 PM
. * * LOOPY MODELS - IS IT SUCH A SURPRISE IN THE GULF` OrlandoDude   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:15 PM
. * * Human Forecasts and thoughts, for a change... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Havana Radar Loop Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:48 PM
. * * While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Cycloneye   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:31 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:46 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:47 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:09 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:53 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:00 PM
. * * Crossing Cuba Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Crossing Cuba in less than an hour with cuban coffee Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Kimmie at work   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:22 PM
. * * the izzy sandwich HanKFranK   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:48 PM
. * * A note on the WSW movement... Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:24 PM
. * * Re: A note on the possible WSW movement... Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:31 PM
. * * Question???????? Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:45 PM
. * * Re: the izzy sandwich Joe   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:59 PM
. * * radar Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Re: radar Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:50 PM

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