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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 271 (Idalia) , Major: 271 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 271 (Idalia) Major: 271 (Idalia)
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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Today's Extended Prog Discussion...
      Fri Sep 20 2002 07:51 PM

EXTENDED FCST DISC VALID MON SEP 23 2002 THRU FRI SEP 27 2002
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

...MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE 500MB LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING
WHAT EFFECT HURRICANE "ISIDORE" MIGHT EVENTUALLY HAVE ON THE
MAINLAND OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH THIS STORM RIGHT INTO DAY 7. STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES NE OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEAR THE W COAST OF NOAM WILL
SANDWICH A BROAD N-S NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N CENTRAL CONUS DAYS 3-5. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE E COAST IN THE DAY 5-8 PERIOD WITH VERY CHILLY
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE MEAN PATTERN STILL FAVORS "ISIDORE" EVENTUALLY BEING PICKED UP
AND PULLED N INTO THE SERN STATES. 00Z/19 MODEL RUNS WERE SPLIT ON ITS
TRACK IN THE DAY 4-7 TIME FRAME. THIS MORNING I THOUGHT THAT THE
AVN/ECMWF/UKMET MIGHT BE TRACKING ISIDORE SO FAR S INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THAT IT WOULD NOT INTERACT WITH ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING
THRU THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROF. IN THIS MORNINGS RELEASE...I
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE AVN...EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ALONG/OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE NEW 12Z AVN DID NOT
CHANGE THAT REASONING. THE 00Z/19 CANADIAN/GFDL/NOGAPS AIMED
HURRICANE "ISIDORE" TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST AROUND DAY
5. HOWEVER...THE 12Z/19 CANADIAN MODEL BACKED OFF FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND
NOW TRACKS "ISIDORE" FARTHER WWD INTO THE GULF CLOSER TO THE TRACK
OF THE AVN MODEL.

AFTER MY NOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE NHC...MY LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK OF "ISADORE" THRU DAY 7 IS FARTHER S AND W THAN IN MY EARLY
RELEASE. I HAVE NOT GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA THAT THE STORM WILL BE
EVENTUALLY PICKED UP AND PULLED NWD...BUT IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN I
EARLIER THOUGHT.

WE CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT A SUBTROPICAL SYS DEVELOPED BY THE LATEST
AVN RUNS VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS DAY 3...THEN MOVED NNEWD OFFSHORE
THEREAFTER.


--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 20 2002 07:51 PM
. * * Interesting week ahead. SirCane   Fri Sep 20 2002 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:49 PM
. * * STD #12 forms... Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:52 PM
. * * Isidore-an EXTREMELY tough call. And other tropical issues Kevin   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:36 PM
. * * Seems straight forward Rasvar   Fri Sep 20 2002 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch cyclone_head   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:00 PM
. * * well... Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:36 PM
. * * 12 is out there Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:41 PM
. * * Today's Extended Prog Discussion... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Today's Extended Prog Discussion... anonomyous   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Today's Extended Prog Discussion... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:31 PM
. * * well Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:46 PM
. * * EEK! Colleen A.   Fri Sep 20 2002 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:01 PM
. * * LOOPY MODELS - IS IT SUCH A SURPRISE IN THE GULF` OrlandoDude   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:15 PM
. * * Human Forecasts and thoughts, for a change... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Havana Radar Loop Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:48 PM
. * * While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Cycloneye   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:31 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:46 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:47 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:09 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:53 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 07:00 PM
. * * Crossing Cuba Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Crossing Cuba in less than an hour with cuban coffee Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Kimmie at work   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:22 PM
. * * the izzy sandwich HanKFranK   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:48 PM
. * * A note on the WSW movement... Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:24 PM
. * * Re: A note on the possible WSW movement... Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:31 PM
. * * Question???????? Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:45 PM
. * * Re: the izzy sandwich Joe   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:59 PM
. * * radar Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Re: radar Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:50 PM

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