Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

5:30AM Update
Franklin is still ragged this morning, but the future track is now looking more clear.

Franklin is most likely to move out to sea during the next few days, which, thankfully, will keep us clear for the weekend. It still will need to be watched until the movement is set, but the out to sea scenario is now the most likely.

Site note:
We had a database hiccup last night and had to restore to an earlier date from posts (From this monday)
I'm trying to recover other posts that were made during the week, and they may show up later.

8PM Update
Franklin's first official Advisory is out, with 45MPH winds. Forecast track hasn't changed, but it has been recentered a little.

More will come as things are learned.

Also, there is a wave off of Africa that also will need watching next week.

7PM Update
Recon has found higher winds in what was TD#6 and the National Hurricane Center has sent out a special message indicating that Tropical Depression Six is now Tropical Storm Franklin.

This is a new record, before now, there has never been 6 named systems before August. On average, a year doesn't get to the "E" named storm until September 16th or 17th. And this month there has been a trackable storm in the Atlantic, every day, except for July 1st.

An update will occur at 8PM to reflect TD#6's upgrade to Tropical Storm Franklin.

Original Update
Tropical Depression Six has formed east of the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for portions of the bahamas. Loopy in this case is the forecast track.

The current NHC forecast has it going much of nowhere over the next few days, making a loop in the atlantic. Because of lessening shear and warm waters, it is likely to become a hurricane sometime over the next few days.
In fact, the National Hurricane Center suggests the depression may be Tropical Storm Franklin very soon.

Because of the nature of slow moving storms, especially one positioned perilously close to Florida, I'm sure we'll all be watching this over the next few days. Folks especially along the Florida East coast will want to watch this one like a flock of hawks.

Hopefully tomorrow we'll know more about the eventual path of the system, but for now, beyond the next few days your guess is as good as mine. Watch the NHC advisories and movement persistance. Many models carry this out to sea as well.

The degree of uncertainty with this system is high, so watch for official statements and changes from the National Hurricane Center. Some models suggest it could be nearing East Central Florida in 48 hours, but others keep it offshore. Most of the east central Florida coast is in the cone (or ellipse as it looks like now).

The other system in the Southwestern Caribbean may cause neither system to get too strong over the next few days, but that's another wildcard, as it too may become a depression tomorrow. This may in fact, keep strengthening of Franklin in check, and lower, unless Franklin manages to move further north. Franklin could potentially shear apart because of the system in the Southwestern Caribbean. It will be an interesting battle.

And yes, I just checked, my calendar still says July.

More to come as we learn more about the system.

Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

<i>Tropical Storm Franklin</i>
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Google Map of Franklin plotted along side Jeanne from Last Year
Google Map of Franklin And Erin (1995)

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