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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea
      Fri Jul 22 2005 09:15 PM

BAM's is a basic model that takes the trajectory from AVN and adds some over unique dynamics. It's usually best when ran for shallow sheared systems, which this kinda of what Frank is....so. BAMM and BAMD are usually better, but I believe BAMS is an overall consensus of the three.

Edit: see the post two down for more. BAMS is just the shallow version of the model, not a combination of the others. The BAM-series models do best not necessarily for shallow sheared storms, but for storms in the deep tropics where there is little influence from mid-latitude features (and thus storms largely move with the large-scale flow). --Clark

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Clark (Fri Jul 22 2005 09:21 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeCAdministrator Fri Jul 22 2005 09:15 PM
. * * system in Caribbean will sneak north Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 22 2005 05:02 PM
. * * Re: system in Caribbean will sneak north Frank P   Fri Jul 22 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: system in Caribbean will sneak north MikeG   Fri Jul 22 2005 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea TSHwonder   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Goosus   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Floridacane   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea NewWatcher   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Frank P   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:17 AM
. * * 11 a.m. Discussion WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion WeatherNut   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Frank P   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion wiley   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:28 AM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion KingTex   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion WeatherNut   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Ed G   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion firestar_1   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Lysis   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion MissBecky   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:29 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:25 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion NewWatcher   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion pcola   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion NewWatcher   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Lysis   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:41 AM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion FlaMommy   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:05 PM
. * * 1954 - Hazel CarolinaGurl   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: 1954 - Hazel Jan   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion pcola   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion joepub1   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:47 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion NewWatcher   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Wxwatcher2   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Steve hirschb.   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion NewWatcher   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:17 PM
. * * Movement WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Movement Steve H1   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:43 PM
. * * future gulf system HanKFranK   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Movement emackl   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Movement TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Movement scottsvb1   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion emackl   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion Steve hirschb.   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:26 AM
. * * Re: 11 a.m. Discussion FlaMommy   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:25 AM
. * * on the record HanKFranK   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: on the record Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: on the record Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:46 AM
. * * Re: on the record Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: on the record Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave THSwonder   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave richg   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave Waggy   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave Goosus   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave THSwonder   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave Steve hirschb.   Fri Jul 22 2005 12:06 PM
. * * Re: on the record Lysis   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Fletch   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:46 AM
. * * How about that sand storm on the east coast???????? jusforsean   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:08 AM
. * * Re: How about that sand storm on the east coast???????? rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:18 AM
. * * What's this???? Beach   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Is Franklin moving? WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Is Franklin moving? Rasvar   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Is Franklin moving? Wxwatcher2   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea wulrich   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Rasvar   Fri Jul 22 2005 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Steve H1   Fri Jul 22 2005 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea emackl   Fri Jul 22 2005 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Beach   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea nowhammies   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Dust storm lawgator   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Dust storm scottsvb1   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Rasvar   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Jamiewx   Fri Jul 22 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea dizzy58   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeG   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Rasvar   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Dust Storm WeatherNut   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Dust Storm TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 03:00 PM
. * * Dust storm? TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea lawgator   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea dizzy58   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea pcola   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea pcola   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea leetdan   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea leetdan   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea emackl   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea leetdan   Fri Jul 22 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 22 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Margie   Fri Jul 22 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Steve   Fri Jul 22 2005 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea ebel   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Lysis   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 22 2005 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Jane219ga   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Steve   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Jamiewx   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Steve   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Keith234   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Lysis   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Keith234   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Keith234   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:31 PM
. * * Is the center reforming? Keith234   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Margie   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Margie   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea HurricaneSteph   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea maybe maybe not   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea damejune2   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Rasvar   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeG   Sat Jul 23 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeG   Sat Jul 23 2005 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Clark   Sat Jul 23 2005 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea XLM   Sat Jul 23 2005 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeG   Sat Jul 23 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeG   Sat Jul 23 2005 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeG   Sat Jul 23 2005 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea XLM   Sat Jul 23 2005 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea HanKFranK   Sat Jul 23 2005 02:29 AM
. * * Stalled Brett   Sat Jul 23 2005 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Stalled zacros   Sat Jul 23 2005 05:27 AM
. * * Re: 5 am discussion LadyStorm   Sat Jul 23 2005 05:45 AM
. * * Re: 5 am discussion Domino   Sat Jul 23 2005 07:19 AM
. * * Re: 5 am discussion NewWatcher   Sat Jul 23 2005 07:54 AM
. * * Re: 5 am discussion Floridacane   Sat Jul 23 2005 08:10 AM
. * * Re: 5 am discussion John C   Sat Jul 23 2005 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Stalled XLM   Sat Jul 23 2005 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea HurricaneSteph   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Rasvar   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea damejune2   Fri Jul 22 2005 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeG   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Ron Basso   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Ron Basso   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea MikeG   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Floridacane   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Margie   Fri Jul 22 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Storm Cooper   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Keith234   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Steve H1   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Lysis   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Steve   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Todd   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Neuspeed   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea dizzy58   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Neuspeed   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Warrior   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Wingman51   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea abyrd   Fri Jul 22 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 22 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 22 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea 00cj   Fri Jul 22 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Reaper   Fri Jul 22 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea abyrd   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Rasvar   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Clark   Fri Jul 22 2005 02:06 PM
. * * Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea and Other TSHwonder   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea and Other WwHhAaTt   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea and Other Steve hirschb.   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea jbmusic   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Floridacane   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Ed G   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea NewWatcher   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:13 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Ed G   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea yecatsjg   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Steve hirschb.   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea NewWatcher   Fri Jul 22 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 22 2005 07:00 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Radar WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea GuppieGrouper   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea LI Phil   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea B.C.Francis   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea Margie   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea TAZMAN   Fri Jul 22 2005 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea GuppieGrouper   Fri Jul 22 2005 07:21 AM

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