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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities

Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
Sat Jul 23 2005 02:21 PM

Quote:

is it 1954 all over again?

No, because it is 2005.

Sorry, I had to reply, even though I am very much not a met.

There are so many variables, that even if *all* weather conditions across a large region at one moment in time were similar to a moment in the past, because of the nature of chaotic systems, there would be no correlation to what would happen in the next moment and the next moment after that, much less for a period of succeeding days.

Molecules of air and water do not have a historical memory...they only respond to the forces around them at that moment.

While it makes sense to talk about generalities -- i.e. El Nino has a specific effect in general on overall hurricane development, it is not logical to reference a previous hurricane or a previous hurricane season and say that tomorrow will be like that.

Why mention 1954 anyway? Isn't it just because of the large number of deaths caused by Hazel -- something that would be rather unlikely considering that advance warnings of hurricanes has improved considerably since 1954. In other words, isn't it just a way to sensationalize and dramatize and cause anxiety (or perhaps a thrill depending on your nature), much in the same way the "New Orleans is doomed" scenario was brought up several times during Dennis' approach to the northern gulf coast.

JB is entertaining and fun to watch. I think this is mostly about entertainment and not science, and using a modicum of valid scientific knowledge to leverage into the realm of fantasy.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	MikeC	Sat Jul 23 2005 02:21 PM
New Birth From Africa?	47canetoad	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:19 AM
Re: New Birth From Africa?	Steve H1	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:32 AM
Re: New Birth From Africa?	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:49 AM
Re: New Birth From Africa?	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:38 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	pedro	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:00 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Maybe maybe not	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:05 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Wxwatcher2	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:12 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Girlnascar	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:44 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	danielw	Sun Jul 24 2005 04:16 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Margie	Sun Jul 24 2005 05:45 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Girlnascar	Sun Jul 24 2005 04:44 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	danielw	Sun Jul 24 2005 05:06 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Margie	Sun Jul 24 2005 05:48 AM
TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm	Domino	Sun Jul 24 2005 05:54 AM
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm	Margie	Sun Jul 24 2005 05:59 AM
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm	ShanaTX	Sun Jul 24 2005 06:05 AM
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm	00cj	Sun Jul 24 2005 06:33 AM
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm	HanKFranK	Sun Jul 24 2005 07:07 AM
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm	Margie	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:23 PM
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm	Storm Cooper	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:26 PM
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm	scottsvb	Sun Jul 24 2005 07:22 AM
Franklin is weakening	yecatsjg	Sun Jul 24 2005 11:08 AM
Re: Franklin is weakening	Wxwatcher2	Sun Jul 24 2005 11:35 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:54 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Girlnascar	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:59 AM
Re: Franklin, decoupling?	Tropics Guy	Sun Jul 24 2005 04:16 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:17 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	pedro	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:39 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	sprnghill	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:29 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	emackl	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:34 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	ShanaTX	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:36 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	pedro	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:56 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	pedro	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:37 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	pedro	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:08 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	pedro	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:29 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	EMS	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:00 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	rmbjoe1954	Sat Jul 23 2005 12:49 PM
"It's 1954 all over again"	LI Phil	Sat Jul 23 2005 01:26 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:00 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	ShanaTX	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:18 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Steve H1	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:16 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:18 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:23 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:39 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:50 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:48 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	ShanaTX	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:01 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:01 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:05 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:17 PM
OT, but weather relevant.	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:21 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:24 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:47 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:56 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:58 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Random Chaos	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:26 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Lysis	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:31 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Maybe Maybe not	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:33 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Lysis	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:36 PM
De-Coupling?	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:41 PM
Re: De-Coupling?	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:24 PM
Re: De-Coupling?	Cocoa Beach	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:31 PM
Re: De-Coupling?	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:40 PM
BOC Storm starting to spin up	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:46 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:20 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:24 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	scottsvb1	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:31 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	scottsvb1	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:33 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	scottsvb	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:37 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	scottsvb1	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:58 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:59 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	ShanaTX	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:41 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:52 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	ShanaTX	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:47 PM
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:04 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	maybe maybe not	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:40 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	MapMaster	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:37 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	ShanaTX	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:45 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	ShanaTX	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:03 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Steve	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:20 PM
Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:57 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:03 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:06 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:37 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:16 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	scottsvb	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:05 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:08 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	HURRIHUNTER	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:59 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	FireAng8	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:02 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Shalafi	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:06 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	XLM	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:04 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	XLM	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:16 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:09 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:13 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:27 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:47 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:31 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Lysis	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:34 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:37 PM
T.D 7 forms in the BOC	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:43 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:41 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	yecatsjg	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:48 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:58 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	yecatsjg	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:02 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:07 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:06 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:05 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Lysis	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:05 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:51 PM
TD7	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:54 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Storm Cooper	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:53 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls... DELETED	BELL SOUTH	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:13 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls... DELETED	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:25 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:26 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:27 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:45 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:50 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:19 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	NewWatcher	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:38 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Lysis	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:40 PM
The Weather Channel	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 09:56 PM
Regarding T.D 7.	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:05 PM
Re: Regarding T.D 7.	Frank P	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:13 PM
Re: Regarding T.D 7.	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:29 PM
Re: Regarding T.D 7.	Frank P	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:37 PM
Re: Regarding T.D 7.	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:03 PM
Re: Regarding T.D 7.	ShanaTX	Sun Jul 24 2005 03:18 AM
Re: Hello TS Gert...	ShanaTX	Sun Jul 24 2005 05:55 AM
Interesting note in the discussion...	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:29 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	Ryan	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:05 PM
Pattern favoring development	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:25 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:08 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:14 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	ShanaTX	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:25 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	Steve H1	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:25 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:11 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:33 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:38 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	KingTex	Sun Jul 24 2005 12:32 AM
Re: The Weather Channel	maybe maybe not	Sun Jul 24 2005 12:41 AM
Dvorak Current Intensity Chart	Maybe maybe not	Sun Jul 24 2005 01:36 AM
Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 24 2005 01:47 AM
Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart	danielw	Sun Jul 24 2005 01:55 AM
Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 24 2005 01:59 AM
Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart	Jamiewx	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:31 AM
Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart	Maybe maybe not	Sun Jul 24 2005 01:55 AM
Re: The Weather Channel	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:35 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	NewWatcher	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:12 PM
Re: The Weather Channel	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 10:04 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:41 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	to my room	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:56 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:36 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:48 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:57 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	AlexK	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:07 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:09 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:04 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	rmbjoe1954	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:07 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Steve H1	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:10 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Floridacane	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:23 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Steve H1	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:37 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Floridacane	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:39 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	COgal	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:30 PM
Starting the loop	Cocoa Beach	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:35 PM
Re: Starting the loop	its me	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:04 PM
Re: Starting the loop	RyRedCross	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:07 PM
Huri Hunter shut up.	AlexK	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:10 PM
Re: Huri Hunter shut up.	XLM	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:13 PM
Re: Starting the loop	Bloodstar	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:07 PM
Re: Starting the loop	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:13 PM
Re: Starting the loop	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:28 PM
Re: Starting the loop	Clowny	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:19 PM
Re: Starting the loop	tonythewop	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:56 PM
Re: Starting the loop	RyRedCross	Sat Jul 23 2005 08:01 PM
Re: Starting the loop	MichaelA	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:51 PM
Re: Starting the loop	ftlaudbob	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:59 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	rmbjoe1954	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:19 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	Steve H1	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:31 PM
Re: Attack of the trolls...	rmbjoe1954	Sat Jul 23 2005 07:35 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Random Chaos	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:28 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:01 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:19 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 05:00 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant. DELETED	MaoMaster	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:42 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:44 PM
Franklin, but also looking south (and east)	Clark	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:35 PM
Re: Franklin, but also looking south (and east)	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:40 PM
Re: Franklin, but also looking south (and east)	MAN GOOOOO	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:45 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:27 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	MapMaster	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:31 PM
Re: OT, but weather relevant.	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:35 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Lysis	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:10 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Steve	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:08 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:15 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Biowatch	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:09 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 02:21 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Steve H1	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:09 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:23 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Wxwatcher2	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:30 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	MikeG	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:34 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:46 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Rasvar	Sat Jul 23 2005 03:53 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	MaoMaster	Sat Jul 23 2005 02:20 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	LI Phil	Sat Jul 23 2005 02:22 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	MapMaster	Sat Jul 23 2005 06:25 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	MaoMaster	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:12 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:17 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Steve	Sat Jul 23 2005 04:23 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	Steve	Sat Jul 23 2005 02:47 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jul 23 2005 01:57 PM
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"	XLM	Sat Jul 23 2005 02:20 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Margie	Sat Jul 23 2005 12:46 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	emackl	Sat Jul 23 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Katie	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:46 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Keith234	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:48 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	HCW	Sun Jul 24 2005 12:01 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jul 23 2005 11:59 PM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Clark	Sun Jul 24 2005 12:45 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jul 24 2005 01:07 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	MichaelA	Sun Jul 24 2005 12:54 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Ron Basso	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:22 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	danielw	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:38 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	MichaelA	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:51 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Major7	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:50 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	MichaelA	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:59 AM
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could	Maybe maybe not	Sun Jul 24 2005 02:33 AM

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