Franklin, the Little Storm that Could

I don't know that the water temps up in the NE US are all that much different than normal. Waters near-shore are warm, up to the low 80s during the day, but they cool back down to the mid 70s at night, a factor of how shallow they really are. The waters off-shore a bit are in the 74 degree range, actually below normal for this time of year (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif). Gulf Stream waters are about a degree above normal, but the waters in the NE US and along-shore are on average below-normal, and during the day so warm only as a factor of the diurnal cycle.

Another example of media irresponsibility: the following AP article absolutely gets wrong the reason why we will see extremely hot temperatures across the SE US Sunday into Monday (http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/tallahassee/12207115.htm).

"Tropical Storm Franklin strengthened as it spun away from the Bahamas on Saturday and moved farther east in the Atlantic, but blasts of warm air from its core were expected to bring extreme heat to the Florida peninsula."
--A warm-core cyclone is defined by having temperatures in its core warmer than its environment. Were there to be blasts of warm air out of the storm, it would be weakening -- not strengthening -- and for such a small storm, the effects would be very minimal. The only way for such a scenario to unfold (the storm bringing about warmer temperatures) were for the warm-core to make landfall, something that will not happen.
--The storm is already and will be even more so sufficiently far away from the coast not to have effects of subsidence on its periphery lead to warmer temperatures over land. Even if it remains near to shore, it would only affect parts of land nearest the coast -- and by that time, it will be north of the Florida peninsula.
--Most importantly, the large, strong ridge of high pressure currently over the central Plains is expected to move eastward, bringing about the warmer temperatures across the SE US...just like we've seen in the central Plains over the past week. We might touch 100 here in Tallahassee on Monday, for instance.

Pardon the rant, but I'd like to use that AP article as a learning experience regarding this storm, plus a reminder to challenge the common collective when something seems awry. People don't always get it right -- and in some cases, get it completely wrong -- and that's where education comes in.

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