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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
franklin going away, gert going south
      Sun Jul 24 2005 10:39 AM

franklin is getting sheared more severely today...still moving east (or northeast). if it decouples the northern end will remain franklin... as far east as it's gone it isn't coming back. the mid-layer vorticity hasn't 'come loose' but should over the next couple of days.. maybe the low level center will jerk around and do a couple of stunts near bermuda as it tries to come with it. i've had franklin wrong thus far; maybe i'll get something related but strange right here...
area further west has my interest. a weak area of low pressure and mid-layer vorticity is on the trailing flank of franklin east of florida.. some convergence in the area as well as the settling mid-layer trough near the east coast is helping force it. with the vortmax present and whatever energy peels back from franklin... a new center may develop near the northern bahamas over the next couple of days. that may be how this thing finally evolves... it wouldn't be franklin in any case if this takes place.
gert jumped north the other night.. maybe it'll come in closer to texas than it was progged to last night, but unless the center tightens rapidly and gets swept nnw in the deep layer flow, it's going to nudge inland before it can make a strengthening run up the coast towards texas. nhc track looks good, maybe a little south.. maybe slightly too weak. the mid-level moisture from gert will be moving up into texas over the next few.
strong wave near 50w is still choking in dry saharan air.. with the low near 12n still diffuse and without convection. still a chance it blows some as it nears the islands... the large area of turning will slowly continue to spin down otherwise.
follow on waves are low amplitude and will only perk up in response to ridging aloft.. of which there's a little closer to the caribbean.
HF 1539z24july

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* Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out MikeCAdministrator Sun Jul 24 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out pedro   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out pedro   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out pedro   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out Maybe maybe not   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out pedro   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out joepub1   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out Lisa NC   Mon Jul 25 2005 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out MapMaster   Mon Jul 25 2005 02:09 PM
. * * franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline HanKFranK   Mon Jul 25 2005 02:38 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline scottsvb   Mon Jul 25 2005 03:02 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline scottsvb   Mon Jul 25 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 03:15 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 04:08 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline Beaujolais   Mon Jul 25 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline 52255225   Mon Jul 25 2005 04:53 PM
. * * Re: franklin stuck/waves coming down the pipeline CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Jul 25 2005 04:50 PM
. * * OT question -- NHC Forecasters schmoo   Mon Jul 25 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: OT question -- NHC Forecasters MapMaster   Mon Jul 25 2005 04:57 PM
. * * Re: OT question -- NHC Forecasters schmoo   Mon Jul 25 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Re: NHC Pages Random Chaos   Mon Jul 25 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: NHC Pages Clark   Mon Jul 25 2005 05:54 PM
. * * Re: NHC Pages Random Chaos   Mon Jul 25 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out ShanaTX   Mon Jul 25 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out MichaelA   Mon Jul 25 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out Major7   Mon Jul 25 2005 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out MichaelA   Mon Jul 25 2005 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out Clark   Mon Jul 25 2005 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Deleted Posts danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Deleted Posts MichaelA   Tue Jul 26 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Franklin Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Tropiocal Wave development Random Chaos   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:56 PM
. * * New Thread danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out MichaelA   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out XLM   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out MichaelA   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:07 PM
. * * Shuttle launch... FlaMommy   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... canetrackker   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... Wxwatcher2   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... MichaelA   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... canetrackker   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... MichaelA   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... ebel   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... ebel   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... notloggedin   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle launch... Random Chaos   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out zacros   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out joepub1   Mon Jul 25 2005 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out pedro   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out pedro   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out Beaumont, TX   Sun Jul 24 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out Random Chaos   Sun Jul 24 2005 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out recmod   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out MichaelA   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out John03   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Bay of Campeche, Franklin Moves Out leetdan   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:38 AM
. * * franklin going away, gert going south HanKFranK   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: franklin going away, gert going south GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: franklin going away, gert going south leetdan   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:17 AM
. * * Re: franklin going away, gert going south Wxwatcher2   Sun Jul 24 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, gert going south Clark   Sun Jul 24 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question DMFischer   Sun Jul 24 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question Steve H1   Sun Jul 24 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question Steve   Sun Jul 24 2005 02:06 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 24 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question Lysis   Sun Jul 24 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question Steve   Sun Jul 24 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question rmbjoe1954   Sun Jul 24 2005 02:51 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question Steve   Sun Jul 24 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question rmbjoe1954   Sun Jul 24 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question HCW   Sun Jul 24 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question Keith234   Sun Jul 24 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Tropics danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 24 2005 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Big Red Machine   Sun Jul 24 2005 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Tazmanian93   Sun Jul 24 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropics Keith234   Sun Jul 24 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropics HCW   Sun Jul 24 2005 06:40 PM
. * * Gert danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 24 2005 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Gert Keith234   Sun Jul 24 2005 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Gert MikeG   Sun Jul 24 2005 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Gert dem05   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Franklin Random Chaos   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Gert Storm Hunter   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Gert Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Gert NONAME   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Gert NONAME   Sun Jul 24 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Gert recmod   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Keith234   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Bloodstar   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight stormchazer   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight MichaelA   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Keith234   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Steve H1   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Steve H1   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight dolfinatic   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Big Red Machine   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight stormchazer   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight Big Red Machine   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Gert over land now AlexK   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Maybe maybe not   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:18 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:23 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Maybe maybe not   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:26 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin MikeG   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Goosus   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Major7   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:26 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin mojorox   Mon Jul 25 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Random Chaos   Mon Jul 25 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Dust danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:42 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:35 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Steve   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:33 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Big Red Machine   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:57 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:51 AM
. * * there goes... HanKFranK   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:19 AM
. * * Re: there goes... Margie   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:25 AM
. * * Re: there goes... MichaelA   Mon Jul 25 2005 06:03 AM
. * * Re: there goes... Margie   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:33 AM
. * * Re: there goes... Random Chaos   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:38 AM
. * * African Wave Train LI Phil   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: African Wave Train Margie   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: African Wave Train Wxwatcher2   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: African Wave Train oops   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:35 AM
. * * Re: African Wave Train GuppieGrouper   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: African Wave Train oops   Mon Jul 25 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Names Random Chaos   Mon Jul 25 2005 06:08 AM
. * * Re: Names TAZMAN   Mon Jul 25 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Names Major7   Mon Jul 25 2005 06:12 AM
. * * Disturbance off Florida West Coast MC Hurricane   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Disturbance off Florida West Coast ShanaTX   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:13 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin ShanaTX   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:04 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Ryan   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin LI Phil   Mon Jul 25 2005 07:26 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Ryan   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:48 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin LI Phil   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:15 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Ryan   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:33 PM
. * * Re:LI Storms MapMaster   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:19 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin LI Phil   Mon Jul 25 2005 11:06 AM
. * * Shuttle Launch FlaMommy   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Shuttle Launch Pamie   Mon Jul 25 2005 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Shuttle Launch ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle Launch Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Jul 25 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Dust MapMaster   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Shalafi   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:17 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Mon Jul 25 2005 08:45 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Shalafi   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:05 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Mon Jul 25 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin wiley   Mon Jul 25 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin MapMaster   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:55 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Cane Watcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:29 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Ed G   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Possible Fernanda or Harvey MC Hurricane   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Katie   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin scottsvb   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:17 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:36 PM
. * * GERT Ryan   Mon Jul 25 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin damejune2   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:45 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re:E quad max winds= westward movement? MapMaster   Mon Jul 25 2005 02:03 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Shalafi   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Goosus   Mon Jul 25 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Goosus   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Shalafi   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin NewWatcher   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:06 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin nl   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:33 AM
. * * Dust storm TAZMAN   Mon Jul 25 2005 09:48 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin ShanaTX   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:43 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Big Red Machine   Mon Jul 25 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 11:01 PM
. * * Re:Frankliin Margie   Sun Jul 24 2005 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight visitor   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight dolfinatic   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Gert NONAME   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Gert superfly   Sun Jul 24 2005 09:25 PM
. * * Gert Recon danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 24 2005 08:44 PM
. * * NHC danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 24 2005 07:40 PM
. * * Re: NHC NONAME   Sun Jul 24 2005 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Gert GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 24 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropics 00cj   Sun Jul 24 2005 05:40 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question NONAME   Sun Jul 24 2005 04:11 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 24 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Gert heading on shore, Franklin Going Stationnary? Bloodstar   Sun Jul 24 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question Big Red Machine   Sun Jul 24 2005 02:15 PM

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