Subtropical Depression 12 and Isidore

Good morning,
Isidore shouldn't really make a Yucatan Peninsula landfall. I believe the eye should stay north of it, but the southern quad will raise hell along the northern Yucatan Coast. In the even a Yucatan landfall does occur (not likely), Isidore would re-itensify anyways. Yucatan Peninsula is a very flat piece of land, most storms that do go across usually make it.

Thoughts on Isidore: WNW and eventually W through 36 hours, perhaps a slight WSW movement after that. From 48-72 hours I expect a very slow W and WNW movement to continue. After that, late on Monday or Tuesday the next longwave/trough should grab Isidore and send him N and NE. I'm still sticking with a landfall anywhere from Pensacola to Cedar Key. Isidore will probably remain a major hurricane the whole time.

Other tropical stuff: Subtrop. storm Kyle looks okay this morning. NHC says SW turn eventually, but Kyle is so far out another trough is bound to pick him up and shove him NE.

92L looks very concentrated this morning...and I expect a depression today or tomorrow. This one should continue W and WNW through 72 hours. I don't think this will be a hurricane until it is near the islands, after that intensification could be much more explosive. There is a possibility of a SE US/Bahamas threat in 7-8 days...but we have to deal with Isidore first.

Wave E and SE of Bahamas need convective persistence. We'll leave it at that. Still could develop down the line, but needs to put on an impressive show at night, not just during the day.

Eastern Atlantic wave flaring up this morning, but low pressure associated with it looks like it is pretty far north 12-13 N. If the system in front develops, this one will go fishing. Always happens that way.

That's how the basin looks today...yeah, looks like a real hellbender. It appears we are going to have numerous tropical problems next week....Isidore possibly bearing down big time on NE GOMEX...hurricane threat in the islands...and monitoring the other areas closely.

Strange the way this season and last didn't need to have an active August and early September to be bad seasons. I think we are in a pattern shift that favors more late season activity...and the steering patterns are letting the Atlantic stuff get further west. The Caribbean stuff is also getting further north now....Keith was thought to be a GOMEX threat but never was, Michelle made an honest effort to scare S. Florida, and Isidore may just be the real thing.

I wonder what this season would be like with a La Nina...talk about bombardment. Of course, if the Atlantic is shifting into a new pattern, all we will have to do is wait for another La Nina to come. The results won't pretty when we do get one.

Enough babbling for now.

Kevin

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