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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
shared ponderings
      Sat Sep 21 2002 04:09 PM

izzy's getting pushed only a little, staying between upper lows. big question now is how far west the storm gets before the ridge to the east rebuilds and hooks it up with a shortwave. my thoughts have changed just a little.
three major differences with the nhc official:
1)system will probably move right along the yucatan coast.. i mean something like 20 miles inland to offshore. land intereaction has a history of slowing the forward movement (it took a really long time to cross western cuba yesterday).. think the nhc track is too fast. not thinking the storm will get west of 92w, but yeah probably 90. think the storm will wobble along its path, but smoothed should resemble nhc.
2)intensity.. naturally mine is lower, since i think the storm will be interacting with land more. think it stays in the 2-3 range through 72hr, except maybe it gets to 4 right before approaching the coast tonight.
3)think after 60hr the wsw component is gone, storm should be moving north of west again.
my endgame has changed too.. shifting it westward, focused on the central gulf. se louisiana to the western panhandle now. expect the storm to bend north, but northeast before reaching the coast. expect it to come ashore at category three/four on thursday or friday.
other systems:
1)kyle. should be fully tropical later today, stall and move erratically through 36hr, then next week start sw and eventually west. a couple of the models have it getting under the newfoundland wheel and accelerating west, as lili did in 1990. not quite ready to take it that far, but suffice to say it could be pretty close to bermuda by the middle of next week.
2)92L. this should be a depression tomorrow. it is moving west fairly quickly, and think it will develop slowly as a result. probably enter the caribbean late monday/early tue as tropical storm lili. whether or not it kills itself with forward speed i'm not quite sure. if it doesnt, will be threatening the western caribbean or southeast u.s. a week from now.
3)the bastardi pinwheel. surface low pressure is disorganized and not moving much, but convection has shifted northward yesterday and something may start to gel tomorrow east of the carolinas. this seems less probable than it did thu or fri, but still a chance it could make some late hour organization as it accelerates ahead of a trough off the east coast. as the upper low decays the area southwest of it up to its remnant axis will have to be watched for further activity.
4)east atlantic wave. basically three possibilites. one, it develops and recurves well out to sea early next week. two, it doesnt develop. three, it moves westward and then develops later next week closer to the islands and becomes another nuisance.
so there, two active systems, maybe one or two more before all's said and through with this span. probably a major hurricane landfall between morgan city and fort walton beach as well.
HF 1603z21september

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 21 2002 04:09 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 21 2002 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander Rick   Sat Sep 21 2002 10:19 PM
. * * West is best Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander andy1tom   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Ricreig   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:00 PM
. * * stalling Southern4sure   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Jeanine   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:22 PM
. * * Ed Dunham MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Ed Dunham Southern4sure   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:32 PM
. * * 13L HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:32 PM
. * * Re: 13L jlauderdal   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:58 PM
. * * FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 08:10 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 08:54 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:00 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:20 PM
. * * Hey Joe ... you saw it too Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Hey Joe ... you saw it too joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:31 PM
. * * 22.1 and 86.3?????? Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:26 PM
. * * Re: 22.1 and 86.3?????? joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:52 PM
. * * Re: 22.1 and 86.3?????? Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 10:12 PM
. * * NW... I'm positive now Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:43 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:07 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:19 PM
. * * Here's something to chew on... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 09:06 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:27 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:37 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander BabyCat   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:56 PM
. * * Bad Reporting by Media Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:32 PM
. * * shared ponderings HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:09 PM
. * * Isidore looking classic now... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Isidore looking classic now... Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:38 PM
. * * Preparations done at my house... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Mike   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:16 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments recmod   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:32 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:45 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:46 PM
. * * nhc 1pm HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:12 PM
. * * NOT MOVING RICKINMOBILE   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:06 PM
. * * Re: NOT MOVING joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Scottsvb Kevin   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:00 PM
. * * WIndows... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:27 PM
. * * Re: WIndows... Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:29 PM
. * * subject of boarding up.... Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: subject of boarding up.... scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:30 PM
. * * scott... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:34 PM
. * * Here are the latest model plots I can find. Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:40 PM
. * * One last note for now before the 1pm update comes out... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:38 PM

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