Actually, much as I'd not like to say it because we run it, the FSU MM5 hasn't done well on track or intensity this year. It does well for genesis -- even overdoing it sometimes -- but it's best left to other models right now for track and such. You're probably thinking of the FSU Superensemble, an entirely different product, which is up there with the NOGAPS on track forecasts.
NOGAPS keeps the disturbance pretty weak, potentially contributing to a more westward motion. It actually doesn't show nearly as favorable conditions for development in the middle-range, so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. There are obstacles ahead of this disturbance, making the ultimate call on what happens a factor of whether or not the ridge moves with the system and provides for favorable development conditions.
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