From what I have been seeing over the past 8 frames of the visible loop over 95L, it is rapidly intensifying and consolidating. It should be classified by 5 P.M as our 9 Tropical Depression of the season shattering the previous record for the earliest 9th system. There are three possible tracks for this storm, the most unlikely one is for it to miss the weakness between the Bermuda ridge and continue eastward. The next one would be for it to continue westward and miss the weakness once again but still recurve before hitting the united states as a large surface trof/ULH dominates the SE. The most likely track, and the track that I think will occur will be for it to recurve between the two ridge's and be pulled out to sea. This agree's with the typhoon in the west pacific teleconnection rule. The track will be dependent on how fast the storm organizes, and the strength of the upper level features, but these can only be determined with time.
Harvey is under some moderate to strong shear, and is pulling ENE at 10 kts. A track similar to Georges seems to be the case. Bermuda was and is the only area of land affected by the storm, and at best had minor damage. Harvey should continue to pull out to see with the longwave trof, and transition to extratropical by 96 hours.
I agree with NOAA and Dr. Gray’s increase in numbers as they agree with the overall decade pattern and analogs. MJO will be a big factor in determining the quantity and severity of the storms in August as overall basin shear is low, and SSTS are anamously warm throughout (except some minor upwelling over the CV region). MJO has also become trackable, and it’s affects are seen in the recurving typhoon in the west pacific and the disturbance in the central pacific. The track of these storms at this time seem like they will recurve, but all these precursor’s seem to be lining up at the right time for development and affect on the U.S.
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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