Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Atlantic

Edit: the post I replied to has been sent to the Graveyard. But, the points I make towards the storm maintaining itself stand and, unless another moderator feels the need to move this post as well (which if so, by all means go ahead!), I'll keep these comments here. --Clark

Ralph, you could be right. This storm could dissipate, or it could move north (or reform north). They can find the center -- they just don't know if it is elongated or not right now. That's partially because you can't see through clouds, we don't have visible satellite imagery overnight, and the microwave imagery can't necessarily see the surface reflection.

However, there is a lot of evidence against that.

1) Model guidance to this point has been consistent in tracking an entity across the Atlantic. Just because some models in one run do not does not mean that you or anyone should jump on that bandwagon. As someone said earlier, it is consistency we are looking for with the models.
2) Models for systems well out in the Atlantic (and for tropical cyclones in general) often do not capture storms very well during their formative stages, due in large part to their formative nature plus the lack of data out over the oceans. Despite all of the satellite & remotely sensed data we have available to us nowadays, a lot of it does not get input into the computer models due to computing power restrictions & the uneven spacing of the data causing havoc with the models. Further, there has been many a storm in the record books that was not accurately captured by the model guidance at some point(s) in its lifetime. These include many of the strongest storms out there. An overwhelming majority of the models called for this storm to develop and they have been right. Time will tell as to what happens from here.
3) The NHC guidance is for a hurricane in three days. They are the ones getting paid the big dollars to make forecasts, the ones who make key decisions to help protect life and property, and the ones who have been doing what they do for many years. They will get one wrong every-so-often, but it is rare to see these storms behave in such a fashion towards dissipation.
4) All trends for this disturbance have been to keep taking it to the west-northwest and to have it become better organized. Given favorable SSTs, a developing outflow pattern, and organization about the center of the convection, what is going to keep it from developing? The NHC cautions that it may occur slower than forecast initially, but that -- in their eyes and in mine -- only delays the inevitable.
5) Climatology says that storms in this region develop and that they don't dissipate. Given above normal climatological parameters and the aforementioned favorable conditions, there is currently no reason to go against climatology.
6) As they develop, weak systems often undergo many bouts of reformation and hiccups in the development process. Emily was a case of this occurring, all the way through the Lesser Antilles. Interestingly enough, a weaker storm at this point is going to travel more towards the west, making it an even greater threat to land down the line than if it develops sooner.
7) News often does go by the motto "if it bleeds, it leads." Despite that, something bad happening is going to draw more attention than something good happening. People want to know what is going on and then how to protect themselves from it occurring to them. They want to know the news of the day, and unfortunately we live in a world where crimes are prevalent. I don't know where you are, but where I am and in all of the locations I have ever been, there is always time in the media -- TV, print, Internet, radio, and otherwise -- for good stories. They just don't carry the same weight as the others because they don't affect as many people. Take that as you may.
8) No one is hyping this storm to be the next big storm. In fact, the reactions of many here today have been subdued. It is one to watch for future development. It has the chance to impact land down the line -- it also has a chance to go out to sea. We don't know yet. The models can't tell us yet. Simply put, it is one to watch over the next week.

The tropics have impacted many, many people over the past year, past five years, past fifty years, and as such, people are always going to be interested in everything out there. We will watch it to see if it develops, if it dissipates, whatever...but people are always going to be talking about it. That's what this forum is for and why we are all here. I apologize if you happen to disagree with that mantra.

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