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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2005 Storm Forum
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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms
      Sun Aug 07 2005 12:32 PM

I think Irene will turn out to sea. I'm fairly certain of that now. The persistent northerly center reformations that have occured over the last day or so have effectively killed any chance of Irene coming westward. I had some small doubts about recurvature yesterday, but the recent events have satisfied those doubts.

To be very honest, Irene's chances of a US landfall ended on Friday morning. The increasing shear and significant center reformation (12 N to nearly 17 N) ended any major US threat from Irene. To add to that, a storm in the process of recurving along with a storm developing in the deep tropics generally isn't a good pattern for the developing system to get very far west. The stage needs to be clear, so to speak.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Irene Forms Ryan Sun Aug 07 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms Ryan   Sun Aug 07 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Brief Thoughts on Irene Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 08 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms Kevin   Sun Aug 07 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms HanKFranK   Sun Aug 07 2005 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms Multi-Decadal Signal   Sun Aug 07 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms Lysis   Sun Aug 07 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms Kevin   Sun Aug 07 2005 02:12 PM

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