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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
17.8N 78.6W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 994mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
      Tue Aug 09 2005 07:27 PM

Food for thought...

If it's okay w/ the mods, I'm going to post a link to another forum where a pro met posted his opinion on Irene.

The highlights:
dont see Irene making landfalll North of 33N and may not make north of 30n before she reaches 80 W...the Ridge over the SW states and SW Atlantic Ocean will be in place and LOCKED in....If I had to make the call now I see a 50% chance of Cat 3 and 25% of cat 4

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=44650

Wow. That's something to chew on. As a nonmeteorologist, this has been a fascinating storm to watch. It really seems like the quote from a discussion on Emily earlier this year (forgive me I forget which disco), "Climatology is out the window this year," could very well be prophetic words. Who would have thunk a storm that far north, that far east could threaten the southeast coast? Never happened before...

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 09 2005 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene pedro   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene firestar_1   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Bloodstar   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene zacros   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene XLM   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene none   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene none   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene VolusiaMike   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:47 AM
. * * Evolution of Longwave Pattern must be factored in future mvmt of Irene berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:03 AM
. * * A Few Cautions Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Do You Think Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:38 PM
. * * Let's not get too ahead of ourselves! berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Do You Think berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene hurricane expert   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:03 PM
. * * CIMMS and Shear Analysis berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:43 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene JG   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty nl   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:24 PM
. * * A few notes Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: A few notes - Amen! berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:59 AM
. * * 5 AM EDT Update danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:55 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 10 2005 07:07 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update Steve H1   Wed Aug 10 2005 07:33 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update Random Chaos   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update B.C.Francis   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update Fletch   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update bamffl   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update NewWatcher   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:40 AM
. * * ts??? ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: ts??? Ryan   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Still a TD LI Phil   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Old Sailor   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD NewWatcher   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Old Sailor   Wed Aug 10 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Old Sailor   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Still a TD Steve H1   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD NONAME   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* ralphfl   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* ralphfl   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD Steve H1   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD jbmusic   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* ralphfl   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* scottsvb   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:01 PM
. * * this site Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:07 PM
. * * ralphfl *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: ralphfl Myles   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: ralphfl NONAME   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Recons Bloodstar   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: ralphfl scottsvb   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: ralphfl superfly   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Irene's unpredictability disneyfanfl   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability emackl   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability crpeavley   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability crpeavley   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ed in Va   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Steve H1   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Fletch   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Wxwatcher2   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability meto   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:04 PM
. * * What will they say at 5pm LoisCane   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: What will they say at 5pm MapMaster   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: What will they say at 5pm *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Model's Ryan   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Model's Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Model's Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Model's Ron Basso   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Model's Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Model's meto   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Model's Todd   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Model's Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Model's none   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Model's Todd   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 LI Phil   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 Big Kahuna   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 BillD   Wed Aug 10 2005 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 hurricane_freak   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00 Bloodstar   Wed Aug 10 2005 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Model's Ed in Va   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Model's Old Sailor   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability NewWatcher   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ryan   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability emackl   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability bamffl   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability Ed in Va   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability NewWatcher   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability scottsvb   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability JYarsh   Wed Aug 10 2005 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene's unpredictability MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:43 PM
. * * LAST WARNING LI Phil   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Still a TD ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:07 AM
. * * Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think Ryan   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think Myles   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:58 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM EDT Update nl   Wed Aug 10 2005 08:42 AM
. * * t.d. irene heading out to sea... no threat to land? HanKFranK   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:15 AM
. * * Last 2 QuickScat passes Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Last 2 QuickScat passes Brad in Miami   Wed Aug 10 2005 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Gainesville, FL   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Gainesville, FL   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Steve H1   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeG   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:17 PM
. * * Irene's winds danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeG   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Ship report danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Ship Report danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Ship Report Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene *DELETED* StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene *DELETED* Old Sailor   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeG   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeG   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Frank P   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Enough! danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Enough! StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:42 PM
. * * RECON danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:37 PM
. * * Re: RECON JG   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:58 PM
. * * RECON danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene dem05   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene hurricane expert   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene richisurfs   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene hccapecoral   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene meto   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene rmbjoe1954   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Tropics Guy   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene VolusiaMike   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene Wxwatcher2   Wed Aug 10 2005 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:58 PM

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