You are correct. Models will always change their solutions at their interval updates once all equations are factored in with updated variables. I am sure the NHC is up to speed. They have performed superbly so far this season; although there is uncertainty about Irene I agree that it is far too early to draw parallels; each system is unique- and as it has been said many times before- we need to wait for the future updates to see what changes the model solutions bring us.
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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