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#Beryl now at 65mph. Now Forecast to be a Major Hurricane near the Windwards on Monday.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#3A 1:00 pm EDT
9.8N 46.8W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge
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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: Joe Bastardi's take
      Wed Aug 10 2005 01:10 AM

To be fair, JB does get some right. My biggest problem today was with the storms pulled out, fair or unfair. Making a comparison to Andrew is no child's play. It is one thing to say the potential is there for a major hurricane; it is another to say that we'll see another Andrew-like storm. JB himself is big on climatology, as I've seen in his season writeups, and he would know better than most that a storm like Andrew is very rare climatologically.

There have been so many other storms like Irene that amounted to nothing that picking one out for analysis isn't prudent, IMO. The storm could do anything from dissipate to rapidly intensify, as can all storms; the conditions now and forecast, however, suggest that modest intensification is possible with no agreement on a track out beyond 3-5 days. It is in the choice to make a call at this point to predict where it might go beyond that or not; given the track errors that far out and the spread of the model guidance, I choose not to. Others may not share that choice and I respect their decision to do so, but it is one I don't agree with.

That said, I think it's time we get back to the meteorology.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Joe Bastardi's take Rick on boat in Mobile Wed Aug 10 2005 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take richisurfs   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Clark   Wed Aug 10 2005 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take disneyfanfl   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Clark   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take Lysis   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Joe Bastardi's take damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:21 PM

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