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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Bloodstar
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ

Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene
Wed Aug 10 2005 12:21 PM

Last night I had noted a pretty large outflow boundry, and I was wondering if it would kill the LLC. In fact, it may have for a brief time and then simply rebuilt it. As it is now, there's enough convection to mask the LLC (but you can still see evidence of the the low level windflow wrapping about and around 22N 57W or so) The storm looks better, but I still have some serious doubts about any strengthening. In fact, i suspect the entire northern part of convection is dying down and will slip away (once again) once the afternoon wears on. The southern convection looks like it's going to stick around this time, but you can still see the storms being pushed to the north and displacing because of shear(?)

If what I am seeing is correct, that's what is causing the seeming NW movement and that the LLC is heading in a more WNW to W direction.

I'm not even going to try to project intensity at this point. and remember, IANAM

-Mark
(of course, now watch the sucker just explode in intensity now that I've doubted that it's going to get any stronger

)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeC	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:21 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	pedro	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeC	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:34 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Beaumont, TX	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	firestar_1	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:55 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Bloodstar	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:21 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Beaumont, TX	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:26 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	zacros	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:36 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	XLM	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:36 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	none	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:37 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	none	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:33 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	VolusiaMike	Wed Aug 10 2005 08:47 AM
Evolution of Longwave Pattern must be factored in future mvmt of Irene	berrywr	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:03 AM
A Few Cautions	Ed Dunham	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:36 PM
Do You Think	Ryan	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:38 PM
Let's not get too ahead of ourselves!	berrywr	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:51 AM
Re: Do You Think	berrywr	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:09 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	hurricane expert	Tue Aug 09 2005 09:59 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	StormTrooper	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:03 PM
CIMMS and Shear Analysis	berrywr	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:43 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	JG	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:47 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeC	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:52 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	StormTrooper	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:15 PM
Re: Uncertainty	danielw	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:46 PM
Re: Uncertainty	Frank P	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:57 PM
Re: Uncertainty	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:53 PM
Re: Uncertainty	StormTrooper	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:51 PM
Re: Uncertainty	nl	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:54 PM
Re: Uncertainty	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:56 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	damejune2	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:24 PM
A few notes	Clark	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:00 AM
Re: A few notes - Amen!	berrywr	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:59 AM
5 AM EDT Update	danielw	Wed Aug 10 2005 05:56 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	OrlandoDan	Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	rmbjoe1954	Wed Aug 10 2005 06:55 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	OrlandoDan	Wed Aug 10 2005 07:07 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	Steve H1	Wed Aug 10 2005 07:33 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 10 2005 08:02 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	B.C.Francis	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:18 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	ftlaudbob	Wed Aug 10 2005 08:40 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	Fletch	Wed Aug 10 2005 08:48 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	MikeC	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:14 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	bamffl	Wed Aug 10 2005 11:40 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	NewWatcher	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:32 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	MikeC	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:40 AM
ts???	ftlaudbob	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:35 AM
Re: ts???	Ryan	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:39 AM
Still a TD	LI Phil	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:42 AM
Re: Still a TD	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:52 AM
Re: Still a TD	Old Sailor	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:46 AM
Re: Still a TD	NewWatcher	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:49 AM
Re: Still a TD	Old Sailor	Wed Aug 10 2005 10:58 AM
Re: Still a TD	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Wed Aug 10 2005 11:27 AM
Re: Still a TD	Old Sailor	Wed Aug 10 2005 11:58 AM
Re: Still a TD	Steve H1	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:13 PM
Re: Still a TD	Ron Basso	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:36 PM
Re: Still a TD	NONAME	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Still a TD Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	ralphfl	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:37 PM
Re: Still a TD Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	ralphfl	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Still a TD	Steve H1	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
Re: Still a TD	jbmusic	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
Re: Still a TD Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	ralphfl	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:18 PM
Re: Still a TD Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	scottsvb	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:01 PM
this site	Rick on boat in Mobile	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:07 PM
ralphfl Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	Rick on boat in Mobile	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:48 PM
Re: ralphfl	Myles	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:55 PM
Re: ralphfl	NONAME	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:53 PM
Recons	Bloodstar	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:02 PM
Re: ralphfl	scottsvb	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:58 PM
Re: ralphfl	superfly	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:08 PM
Irene's unpredictability	disneyfanfl	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:36 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Big Red Machine	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:43 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	emackl	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:47 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Clark	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:18 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Ron Basso	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:48 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	crpeavley	Wed Aug 10 2005 06:21 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Clark	Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	crpeavley	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:10 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Brad in Miami	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:12 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Ed in Va	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:21 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Ron Basso	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:05 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Brad in Miami	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:29 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Steve H1	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:34 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Fletch	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:38 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Wxwatcher2	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:05 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	meto	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:04 PM
What will they say at 5pm	LoisCane	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:00 PM
Re: What will they say at 5pm	MapMaster	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:46 PM
Re: What will they say at 5pm Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	Rick on boat in Mobile	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:04 PM
Model's	Ryan	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:11 PM
Re: Model's	Ron Basso	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:24 PM
Re: Model's	Brad in Miami	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:42 PM
Re: Model's	Ron Basso	Wed Aug 10 2005 06:30 PM
Re: Model's	Clark	Wed Aug 10 2005 06:41 PM
Re: Model's	meto	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:33 PM
Re: Model's	Todd	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:37 PM
Re: Model's	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:49 PM
Re: Model's	none	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:41 PM
Re: Model's	Todd	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:47 PM
Irene Still A TD @ 5:00	LI Phil	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:51 PM
Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00	Big Kahuna	Wed Aug 10 2005 05:13 PM
Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00	BillD	Wed Aug 10 2005 06:05 PM
Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00	Brad in Miami	Wed Aug 10 2005 05:24 PM
Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00	hurricane_freak	Wed Aug 10 2005 05:22 PM
Re: Irene Still A TD @ 5:00	Bloodstar	Wed Aug 10 2005 05:22 PM
Re: Model's	Ed in Va	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:48 PM
Re: Model's	Old Sailor	Wed Aug 10 2005 04:30 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	NewWatcher	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:26 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Ryan	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:58 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	rmbjoe1954	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:01 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	emackl	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:55 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	bamffl	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:58 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	Ed in Va	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:34 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	NewWatcher	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:35 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	MikeC	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	scottsvb	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:16 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	JYarsh	Wed Aug 10 2005 02:11 PM
Re: Irene's unpredictability	MikeC	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:43 PM
LAST WARNING	LI Phil	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:34 PM
Re: Still a TD	ftlaudbob	Wed Aug 10 2005 11:07 AM
Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think	Rick on boat in Mobile	Wed Aug 10 2005 11:03 AM
Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think	Ryan	Wed Aug 10 2005 11:12 AM
Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think	Rick on boat in Mobile	Wed Aug 10 2005 11:17 AM
Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think	Myles	Wed Aug 10 2005 12:13 PM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	ftlaudbob	Wed Aug 10 2005 08:58 AM
Re: 5 AM EDT Update	nl	Wed Aug 10 2005 08:42 AM
t.d. irene heading out to sea... no threat to land?	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:15 AM
Last 2 QuickScat passes	Brad in Miami	Wed Aug 10 2005 01:20 AM
Re: Last 2 QuickScat passes	Brad in Miami	Wed Aug 10 2005 11:09 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	rmbjoe1954	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:29 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Gainesville, FL	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:48 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Gainesville, FL	Tue Aug 09 2005 09:06 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Steve H1	Tue Aug 09 2005 09:22 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Frank P	Tue Aug 09 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 09 2005 09:59 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Frank P	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:07 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeG	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:15 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:12 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Frank P	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:21 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	StormTrooper	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:17 PM
Irene's winds	danielw	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:28 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeG	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:22 PM
Ship report	danielw	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:35 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:32 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Frank P	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:43 PM
Ship Report	danielw	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:56 PM
Re: Ship Report	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 09 2005 11:07 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	ftlaudbob	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:36 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene DELETED	StormTrooper	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:27 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene DELETED	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:35 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeG	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:30 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeG	Tue Aug 09 2005 10:30 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	StormTrooper	Tue Aug 09 2005 09:58 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Frank P	Tue Aug 09 2005 09:18 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	damejune2	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:41 PM
Enough!	danielw	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:29 PM
Re: Enough!	StormTrooper	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:42 PM
RECON	danielw	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:37 PM
Re: RECON	JG	Tue Aug 09 2005 09:58 PM
RECON	danielw	Tue Aug 09 2005 08:12 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	dem05	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:43 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	hurricane expert	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:15 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	richisurfs	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:19 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	hccapecoral	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:28 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Big Red Machine	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:27 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeC	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:31 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Ryan	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:26 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeC	Tue Aug 09 2005 07:05 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	damejune2	Tue Aug 09 2005 06:54 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	berrywr	Wed Aug 10 2005 03:06 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	MikeC	Tue Aug 09 2005 06:56 PM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	meto	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:01 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	rmbjoe1954	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:12 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Tropics Guy	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:24 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	ftlaudbob	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:20 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	VolusiaMike	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:35 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	Wxwatcher2	Wed Aug 10 2005 09:05 AM
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene	damejune2	Tue Aug 09 2005 06:58 PM

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