Last night I had noted a pretty large outflow boundry, and I was wondering if it would kill the LLC. In fact, it may have for a brief time and then simply rebuilt it. As it is now, there's enough convection to mask the LLC (but you can still see evidence of the the low level windflow wrapping about and around 22N 57W or so) The storm looks better, but I still have some serious doubts about any strengthening. In fact, i suspect the entire northern part of convection is dying down and will slip away (once again) once the afternoon wears on. The southern convection looks like it's going to stick around this time, but you can still see the storms being pushed to the north and displacing because of shear(?)
If what I am seeing is correct, that's what is causing the seeming NW movement and that the LLC is heading in a more WNW to W direction.
I'm not even going to try to project intensity at this point. and remember, IANAM
-Mark (of course, now watch the sucker just explode in intensity now that I've doubted that it's going to get any stronger )
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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