Part of the reason I think the storm is going to induce headaches for the next couple of days is the back and forth 'tail wagging' (hey, someone said that phrase, and I thought it was apropos to what we are seeing now). Either you take the models and discount the ones you think are either over emphesizing something or are missing a feature that may impact the track.
Personally I'm sticking with the, 'weaker is west' mantra. and the more disorganized the storm remains, the better the chances it will not turn north at all. Of course, that's not a suprise. I just think it needs to be emphesized. The course of this particular storm is very dependant onthe intensity and organization.
The storm looks like half a storm, with the dry air absolutely killing the convection on the western semicircle. Perhaps it'll get better over night, but I suspect for at least the next day or two, it won't strengthen much (if at all) and that seems to indicate a west motion (as per the general track the last several days).
I'm still not confident. of anything at this point, but if the winds stay about the same for the next 36 hours, I have a fairly confident idea where the storm will hit.
-Mark
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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