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Historic #HurricaneBeryl now in the Caribbean with a day or few left before shear is expected to increase. Elsewhere, Invest 96L is not doing so well.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 306 (Idalia) , Major: 306 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 306 (Idalia) Major: 306 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#12 4:00 pm EDT
12.4N 61.3W
Wind: 140MPH
Pres: 956mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
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Rem Chris
ADV#4 4:00 pm EDT
20.2N 97.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Where will irene head?
      Thu Aug 11 2005 01:44 AM

not a bad philosophy. problem is, the ridge is transient.. even a strong storm could come in if it builds strong further west than the models are showing (the overall pattern could support the ridging trending stronger near the mid-atlantic coast). as for the next 24 hrs.. the upper low to the sw is keeping it in check, but probably adding some latitude. the current ridge centered near bermuda should weaken around 48-72 and then rebridge afterwards.. exactly how that happens will determine whether irene misses nc, goes into nc, or bends back to the west and impacts further south.
the basic premise of timing of intensification i won't argue with, though... how irene intensifies will feed back into the strength and alignment of nearby ridging, and the tendency to move poleward via that beta advection thing clark explained but i haven't learned.
when irene gets aligned correctly and starts intensifying... we'll have a much better idea what the track will be.
HF 0544z11august

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* Where will irene head? Bloodstar Thu Aug 11 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Where will irene head? HanKFranK   Thu Aug 11 2005 01:44 AM

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