Tropical Bloom. Isidore, Kyle, TD#13

Good morning to y'all. I see alot of people looking, but nobody talking, so I'll go ahead and jump back in after another 5 hour nap.

This is what I think I see this morning. One thing is Izzy sure does seem to be a cat4, but the NHC just won't make the call. The pressure is 935MB and he's still a high cat3? Not likely. NHC is also sticking to their forecast that they have been putting out since yesterday morning, nothing new or off-the-wall. Will LA evacuate the shores? IF Izzy makes a turn to the north, and IMO that's a huge IF, LA west could be the target. Just remember to listen to your local NWS statements. I think, and this is my opinion only, that Izzy may not make a ture turn to the north at all; he MAY get going NW at the end, but it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't happen. He's already had a couple of chances to get farther north then he is and he's passed on all of them. If Mitch ever had a brother, this could be him. Besides that, the GFDL turns him north after 48 hrs, and I've decided that today I'm not going to listen to anything the GFDL predicts after 48hrs. I'm declaring war on the GFDL, which has hit every point in the eastern GOM with Izzy at one time or another, and look where he still is.

Kyle looks about as good as I feel this morning. Man, somebody go get him a cup of mojo. Nobody seems to know what to do with him.

TD13 should be Lili at 11, no later than 5. Good cloud cover, convection seems to want to hang on. Strong TS, maybe cat1 taking tour of the islands by midweek. Close to PR. She may get into a fight with Haiti/DR, or Kyle, or both. To early to say if US in danger. Some models start to turn her north in 4-5 days, but how Kyle will go west and Lili turn north I don't see. She's moving pretty fast. My best friend in the the world today, the GFDL, slams her into Central America. Just to add a little personal exp., when I was a kid we got hit here in Jax by Dora, which got pushed almost due west by an interaction with a storm much like Kyle. Anything can happen.

Just my ealy thoughts. I reserve the right to completely wrong about everything today. Where did I put my coffee? Time to go to Dunkin Donuts.

Joe in Jax
Way to go Gators!

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