Tropical Bloom. Isidore, Kyle, TD#13

Here is my rundown on the current storms:
Isidore
Isidore is very, very well defined this morning. Miles Lawerence stated the storm's structure perfectly this morning when he described the CDO as "cloud tops impressively cold, symmetrical, and very large". Isidore should intensify to a category 4 once he gets away from the Yuctan. I'm placing all of my faith in NHC's forecast track at this time simply because I see no other scenario that is better than their's. At the same time, I've drawn a complete "blank" when it comes to track. With Isidore so strong and the status of the troughiness near the norther GOMEX so uncertain, I'm going to have to extend my threat area west. Let's say Cedar Key to New Orleans. Talk about a broad area of targets--this shows the great uncertainty with Isidore.
TD 13/Lili
I'm going to go with NHC on intensity and track with this storm as well. A 80 or 85 knot hurricane in 72 hours is absolutely possible at this time. I agree with the track, as I said, through 72 hours. After that is when things start to get interesting. Some models turn what will be Lili north when she should be just NW of Puerto Rico. However, with Kyle possibly moving SW at 72 hours as well, this would be indicative of a ridge building in from the north. What the models could be picking up on is Kyle moving southwest at a more rapid rate after 72 hours, possibly as a hurricane. This could help to erode the ridge around 80 hours, possibly turning Lili NW and N up Florida's EC. Intensity is another issue. As I said before, I'm going with NHC's intensity forecast through 72 hours, but after that, big questions arise. The environment still looks to be favorable after 72 hours, but as always, Hispanola comes into play. Given the possible location and strength of Kyle around that time, Lili could be turning NW and avoiding Hispanola around this time. So, there is a possibility of a strong category 2 or category 3 hurricane approaching the Florida EC late next week. The islands are first on Lili's crosshairs though, so they need to get ready now.
Kyle
I'm not going to say anything until Kyle possibly becomes an issue in Lili's path. Could be a hurricane in a few days though.
Other areas
The wave east of the Bahamas is a bit more convective this morning, but it still remains very poorly organized. If this wave stays around for another 3-5 days, it is going to become an energy source for Kyle, or more likely, Lili.

The wave a few hundred miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands is well-defined, but lacks deep convection at this time. Being it will be in the wake of what could be a hurricane, any development would be slow.

Thoughts? Comments?

Kevin

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