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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#6 9:00 pm EDT
16.3N 77.2W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 996mb
Moving:
Nnw at 12 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 365
Re: Recon
      Fri Aug 12 2005 04:26 PM

Something interesting in the 11 am NHC package: Jacksonville shows up on the probability table with a small (I think 2%) chance of the eye passing within 65 nm within 72 hours. However, in the experimental wind probability product, Jacksonville is not listed with regards to any winds - 34 kt or higher.

This doesn't mean much, because the 2% odds of a 65 nm "brush" might not translate into a 2% chance of getting 34 kt winds, or the two products might be based on different computer output. But I find it interesting and wonder which of those two possibilities, or if something else, accounts for that.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Moving Northwest, TD 10 Forms MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 12 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea pedro   Sat Aug 13 2005 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea AndyG   Sat Aug 13 2005 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:41 PM
. * * quick reminder HanKFranK   Fri Aug 12 2005 09:35 PM
. * * 11:00 is out...Irene Still a TS LI Phil   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:53 PM
. * * The Future Of Irene Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 12 2005 11:32 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Random Chaos   Fri Aug 12 2005 11:38 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Steve H1   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:34 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene HanKFranK   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:01 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Cat Adjuster   Sat Aug 13 2005 10:23 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Old Sailor   Sat Aug 13 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Invest 96L Comments Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene ralphfl   Sat Aug 13 2005 12:33 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene Kevin   Sat Aug 13 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene scottsvb   Sat Aug 13 2005 01:48 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Good night, Irene, good night Irene... margie_visiting   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Good night, Irene, good night Irene... Myles   Sat Aug 13 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Could we have a trend here? ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 13 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 13 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? Kevin   Sat Aug 13 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? emackl   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? meto   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:23 PM
. * * TD 10 and Irene danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: TD 10 and Irene *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* NONAME   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: TD 10 and Irene Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? Clark   Sat Aug 13 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Could we have a trend here? SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: The Future Of Irene mikeG   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:19 AM
. * * Early Saturday thoughts on Irene LI Phil   Sat Aug 13 2005 07:21 AM
. * * Re: Early Saturday thoughts on Irene craigm   Sat Aug 13 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: quick reminder damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Hank and Irene danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 12 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Irene stalled? Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Myles   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Rabbit   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea scottsvb   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Recon crpeavley   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Recon john03   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Recon Rabbit   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Recon Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:09 PM
. * * Recon Cocoa Beach   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Recon Gainesville, FL   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Recon OcalaKT   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Recon Reaper   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Recon ShanaTX   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Recon rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Recon Big Kahuna   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Recon superfly   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Recon Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Recon Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon ralphfl   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Recon Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Recon DavidP   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Recon Ryan   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Recon Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Irene & to-be-TD 10 Clark   Fri Aug 12 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene & to-be-TD 10 Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon margie_visiting   Fri Aug 12 2005 07:15 PM
. * * 96L NONAME   Fri Aug 12 2005 04:52 PM
. * * Re: 96L mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Eye MapMaster   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Eye yecatsjg   Fri Aug 12 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Eye MapMasterNLI   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Eye mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Eye Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Eye Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 12 2005 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon damejune2   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Recon mikeG   Fri Aug 12 2005 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Recon Bloodstar   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon Ed in Va   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon Frank P   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Recon NewWatcher   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Recon Todd   Fri Aug 12 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea Old Sailor   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea craigm   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 12 2005 01:53 PM

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