Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Re: Sunday Morning
Sun Aug 14 2005 05:21 PM
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>>This season and even last seson, JB has been off, waaay off on his hurricane forecasts.
I don't see how you can say that. He doesn't give "forecasts" on storms unless you read the columns (which I don't). He gives scenarios. But his forte is not in forecasting landfalls. He's better at seasonal analysis and pattern recognition. How anyone could come to the conclusion that he was waaay off in 2004 based on his Landfall Intensity Forecast is beyond me. His 2005 LIF forecast remains to be seen and verified. He's not bee great with some storm specific ideas, but he's also been better than the NHC on some (Cindy for instance and Franklin hanging out to dry for a while). He was off on Dennis, but only by about 150 miles from 6 days out. I think you're mischaracterizing his intentions and what he does.
>>To the point that I don't consider him a credible source of information anymore. Basicly it comes down to the fact that he seems to see EVERY storm that is moving West coming to Florida or New Orleans and it just isn't happening.
Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. I fell into the same trap with the NHC in 2002 and 2004. They weren't worth squat in 2002 (I know, I got rain from 7 different storms so I paid attention). Last year they over-relied on the GFS model and turned every wave to long tracked hurricane up at 45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, etc. etc. etc.
>> appreciate and get much more accurate information from Clark and Ed and others on this site.
I enjoy those guys too, but they're not infailable as they'd both tell you. Hell, I've outguessed both of them a couple of times and I'm not even a doormat to the league they're in. /blind squirrel analogy 
>>I guess it never hurts to read what JB has to say but in my opinion, he is wrong much more than he is right
This stuff gets bantered around the web, but how about some specifics rather than generalities. He's been wrong "how" more than he's right "how."
If you're going to use Joe Bastardi, you don't read a second-hand account of some Bastardi hater on an internet message board to form a conclusion. You have to learn how to use him. He offers clues as to what's going on in the bigger picture that can be interpreted down by the individual who wants to incorporate them into what they're seeing. He also is great for headsup on stuff most of us don't have time to research. He mentioned early this week that the NAO was about to swing strongly positive. I verified that by going to the NAO chart to see for myself. Sure enough, the 7-day lead has been outstanding this season and is calling for a strong positive anomaly in the North Atlantic. So if this verifies as Irene pulls out, the lower pressures will be in the SW Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean. That's the kind of stuff you want to get from Joe B, not a landfall idea.
JMO
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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