Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

to answer the subject header... yep. the nhc will probably reclassify it today. the shear which had been in the 10-20kt range over the system is now over the 5-15 kt range and more out of the south. the convection has been more or less sustained (with only short breaks in the bursts) for the last 24-36 hrs. system has been moving between 270-290 for the last 60 hours or so... gotten into a position where it can affect the weather in the extreme ne caribbean. the system could have been classified all along since it's retained a closed rotary circulation over warm waters, but all that convection the nhc likes to see should stick around now that the relative shear is on the wane. system should track in the general direction of the bahamas, just north of the islands, for the next 2 days. there's a broad weakness in the ridge near 70w and it may start to turn up into that. early next week a shortwave will dig into the ne us and may either keep digging and amplify the ridge off the east coast (which would turn the storm north and accelerate it) or split and insert either a stair step into the track if the system is still to the south... or just recurve it past bermuda. if the tracks of the last three storms in that part of the basin are any clue, recurvature is the ticket. the basic synoptic pattern which has existed since late july has only altered location somewhat, not really changed to a great degree. the caveat will be how much development along a post-frontal/coastal low off hatteras occurs.. the globals that favor it greatly recurve 10 unanimously.. the ones with less dramatic development favor its continued wnw/nw movement to east of the bahamas by monday.
the canadian and a couple of globals are developing a caribbean/w gulf storm for either texas or mexico late mid/late next week (perhaps the precursor is either the retrograding trough energy n of hispaniola or the disturbance being drawn northwestward out of venezuela.
numerous globals are suggesting a cape verde system next week also. the current high-amplitude wave doesn't really have any support... strong convergence and a monsoon trough are setting up near the african coast. should be convergent area near the eastern caribbean by the weekend also.
eastpac trying to develop one disturbance sw of the baja and will probably have another near the gulf of tehuantepec in a couple of days. mjo has weakened some, but the zonal anomalies favoring activity are still going to serve as a somewhat favorable environmental factor over the next few weeks.
HF 1441z17august

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