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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 273 (Idalia) , Major: 273 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 273 (Idalia) Major: 273 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: 97 Invest
      Sun Aug 21 2005 02:34 PM

I'm waiting for the 11am update of the TWO, but until then, there is the TWD from a couple hours ago. It looks like conditions are good for both the soon-to-enter-the-GOM and the east Atlantic waves to form Tropical Cyclones. It looks like it is the start of the first of the busy weeks. Been an unusually quiet August...looks like that is about to change.

Also, we can't forget about the Bay of Campeche wave. That is taking a track very similar to what Gert took. While NHC isn't talking about development of it yet, it still has a ways to go before it finishes crossing the Yucatan,

--RC

--------------

From the 805 AM TWD:

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING IS
NOTED WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION.
THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

---------------

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
WIND SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THIS
AREA..

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Undramatic Pause HanKFranK Sun Aug 21 2005 02:34 PM
. * * 97L Reorganizing, headed more north Jekyhe904   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:15 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Convergence   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Keith234   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* pedro   Sat Aug 20 2005 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Sat Aug 20 2005 04:05 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Sat Aug 20 2005 04:52 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause superfly   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Cycloneye11   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause NONAME   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause MikeG   Sat Aug 20 2005 05:03 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause The Force 2005   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause craigm   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Ron Basso   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause NONAME   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause J.C.   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Old Sailor   Fri Aug 19 2005 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause damejune2   Fri Aug 19 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Random Chaos   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause HURRICANELONNY   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Don't look now but... Bloodstar   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ron Basso   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... inflworried   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:56 AM
. * * EPAC Ryan   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Old Sailor   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... meto   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Old Sailor   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... fatmike   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... yanks rule   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... HanKFranK   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Big Red Machine   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... native   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* H20 temp   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* H2O temp   Sat Aug 20 2005 09:15 PM
. * * THings I'm watching Steve   Sat Aug 20 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Clark   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:26 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Ron Basso   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:09 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Old Sailor   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Frank P   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:38 AM
. * * That Wave Old Sailor   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Old Sailor   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:34 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:39 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Keith234   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:29 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:48 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Keith234   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:55 AM
. * * New Invest 97L h2ocean   Sun Aug 21 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 01:31 AM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 02:28 AM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L Jekyhe904   Sun Aug 21 2005 03:14 AM
. * * last call HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:59 AM
. * * Re: last call Beaumont, TX   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Re: last call Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 05:13 AM
. * * Re: last call Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 06:47 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Frank P   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest John03   Sun Aug 21 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Keith234   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:38 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Ron Basso   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:01 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Jekyhe904   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:55 PM
. * * what's this Lou   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:37 AM
. * * Turks and Caicos danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Turks and Caicos MikeG   Mon Aug 22 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Turks and Caicos Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 02:39 AM
. * * buckle up LI Phil   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:47 AM
. * * Tropical Observations danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Observations Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:06 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest HURRICANELONNY   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* HURRICANELONNY   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest John03   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:40 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest MikeG   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:53 PM
. * * Possible BOC system Rich B   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Possible BOC system Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:57 PM
. * * transition time? HanKFranK   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Home brew???? WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:55 AM
. * * First Model Runs NHC on 97L Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:18 AM
. * * Re: Possible BOC system danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:44 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions dem05   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions Clark   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:49 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:34 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Rabbit   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Clark   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Kevin   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:23 PM
. * * All a board B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching NONAME   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ryan   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... damejune2   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ryan   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:38 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... NewWatcher   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Hawkeyewx   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Ron Basso   Fri Aug 19 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause native   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause newbie   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Hootowl   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:21 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:31 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause imnotsignedinnow   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:49 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:51 AM
. * * NAM Model (was Undramatic Pause) Jax Chris   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause pcola   Fri Aug 19 2005 05:39 PM

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