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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
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Lou
Unregistered




what's this
      Sun Aug 21 2005 09:37 PM

There are 3 systems this Sunday afternoon capable of development
within the next 5 days. The first is coming into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico from off the Yucatan and has potential to quickly spin up like Gert and Bret did earlier this season, but just as they did, this would stay south in its final move to the coast, reaching though coast near Tuxpan Tuesday.

The second is a bigger problem. TD10 is gone, perhaps the reason was the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the mid level spin is near 20.5 north and 70.0 west this afternoon. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the northeast and the atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern.

The 3rd is a major wave that is near the Cape Verdes. This may the first of several that can develop and try to come across. It will be moving west the next few days.

For now though, the one that can cause forecasters the greatest wailing and gnashing of teeth is the second one. accuweather [list] [list]

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Undramatic Pause HanKFranK Sun Aug 21 2005 09:37 PM
. * * 97L Reorganizing, headed more north Jekyhe904   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Convergence   Sun Aug 21 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Keith234   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* pedro   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause superfly   Sat Aug 20 2005 04:23 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Cycloneye11   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause NONAME   Sat Aug 20 2005 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause MikeG   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause The Force 2005   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause craigm   Fri Aug 19 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Ron Basso   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause NONAME   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause J.C.   Fri Aug 19 2005 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Old Sailor   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause damejune2   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Random Chaos   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Fri Aug 19 2005 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause HURRICANELONNY   Fri Aug 19 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Fri Aug 19 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Don't look now but... Bloodstar   Fri Aug 19 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ron Basso   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... inflworried   Fri Aug 19 2005 10:56 PM
. * * EPAC Ryan   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Old Sailor   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... meto   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Old Sailor   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... fatmike   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... yanks rule   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... HanKFranK   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Big Red Machine   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... native   Fri Aug 19 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* H20 temp   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* H2O temp   Sat Aug 20 2005 05:15 PM
. * * THings I'm watching Steve   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 05:59 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Clark   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Ron Basso   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:09 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Old Sailor   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Frank P   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching HanKFranK   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:38 PM
. * * That Wave Old Sailor   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Old Sailor   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:39 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Keith234   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Keith234   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:55 PM
. * * New Invest 97L h2ocean   Sat Aug 20 2005 09:09 PM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2005 09:31 PM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2005 10:28 PM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L Jekyhe904   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:14 PM
. * * last call HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:59 AM
. * * Re: last call Beaumont, TX   Sun Aug 21 2005 05:00 PM
. * * Re: last call Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 01:13 AM
. * * Re: last call Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 02:47 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:12 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Frank P   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:23 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:35 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest John03   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:40 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:34 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:28 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Keith234   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Ron Basso   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Jekyhe904   Sun Aug 21 2005 06:55 PM
. * * what's this Lou   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Turks and Caicos danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Turks and Caicos MikeG   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Turks and Caicos Old Sailor   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:39 PM
. * * buckle up LI Phil   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:47 PM
. * * Tropical Observations danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Observations Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:06 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest HURRICANELONNY   Sun Aug 21 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 06:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* HURRICANELONNY   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest John03   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:40 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest MikeG   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Possible BOC system Rich B   Sun Aug 21 2005 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Possible BOC system Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:57 PM
. * * transition time? HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Home brew???? WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:55 PM
. * * First Model Runs NHC on 97L Old Sailor   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Possible BOC system danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions dem05   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions Clark   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:49 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 03:34 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Rabbit   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Clark   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:06 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Kevin   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:23 PM
. * * All a board B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:15 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching NONAME   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ryan   Fri Aug 19 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... damejune2   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ryan   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... NewWatcher   Fri Aug 19 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Hawkeyewx   Fri Aug 19 2005 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Ron Basso   Fri Aug 19 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause native   Fri Aug 19 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause newbie   Fri Aug 19 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Hootowl   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause imnotsignedinnow   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:51 PM
. * * NAM Model (was Undramatic Pause) Jax Chris   Fri Aug 19 2005 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause pcola   Fri Aug 19 2005 01:39 PM

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