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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
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Lou
Unregistered




what's this
      Mon Aug 22 2005 01:37 AM

There are 3 systems this Sunday afternoon capable of development
within the next 5 days. The first is coming into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico from off the Yucatan and has potential to quickly spin up like Gert and Bret did earlier this season, but just as they did, this would stay south in its final move to the coast, reaching though coast near Tuxpan Tuesday.

The second is a bigger problem. TD10 is gone, perhaps the reason was the tropical wave that was following it always seemed to interrupt its development pulses. Well now that tropical wave has all the potential of the pattern to itself and the mid level spin is near 20.5 north and 70.0 west this afternoon. The most likely path of this is to near Nassau by Wednesday and just east of the central Florida coast by Thursday. Building pressures over the northeast and the atlantic mid and late week are a known precursor to tropical development and so this is liable to become better organized during the week. All interests on the southeast coast should pay close attention to this. Interestingly enough, a tropical wave near 60 west is moving quickly toward it and it will either feed in and help, or compete and limit as the week goes on. Should development take place, the system may turn west into Florida and to the Gulf on the weekend given the overall pattern.

The 3rd is a major wave that is near the Cape Verdes. This may the first of several that can develop and try to come across. It will be moving west the next few days.

For now though, the one that can cause forecasters the greatest wailing and gnashing of teeth is the second one. accuweather [list] [list]

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Undramatic Pause HanKFranK Mon Aug 22 2005 01:37 AM
. * * 97L Reorganizing, headed more north Jekyhe904   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:15 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Convergence   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Keith234   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* pedro   Sat Aug 20 2005 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Sat Aug 20 2005 04:05 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Sat Aug 20 2005 04:52 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause superfly   Sat Aug 20 2005 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Cycloneye11   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause NONAME   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause MikeG   Sat Aug 20 2005 05:03 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause The Force 2005   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause craigm   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Ron Basso   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause NONAME   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause J.C.   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Old Sailor   Fri Aug 19 2005 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause damejune2   Fri Aug 19 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Random Chaos   Fri Aug 19 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Brad in Miami   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause HURRICANELONNY   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Don't look now but... Bloodstar   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ron Basso   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... inflworried   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:56 AM
. * * EPAC Ryan   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Old Sailor   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... meto   Sat Aug 20 2005 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Old Sailor   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... fatmike   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... yanks rule   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... HanKFranK   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Big Red Machine   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... native   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* H20 temp   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Water Temps *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* H2O temp   Sat Aug 20 2005 09:15 PM
. * * THings I'm watching Steve   Sat Aug 20 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Clark   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:26 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Ron Basso   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:09 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Old Sailor   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Frank P   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:38 AM
. * * That Wave Old Sailor   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Old Sailor   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:34 AM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:39 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Keith234   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:29 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching dem05   Sat Aug 20 2005 11:48 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Keith234   Sun Aug 21 2005 12:55 AM
. * * New Invest 97L h2ocean   Sun Aug 21 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 01:31 AM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 02:28 AM
. * * Re: New Invest 97L Jekyhe904   Sun Aug 21 2005 03:14 AM
. * * last call HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:59 AM
. * * Re: last call Beaumont, TX   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Re: last call Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 05:13 AM
. * * Re: last call Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 06:47 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Frank P   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest John03   Sun Aug 21 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest HanKFranK   Sun Aug 21 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Keith234   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:38 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Ron Basso   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:01 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Jekyhe904   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:55 PM
. * * what's this Lou   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:37 AM
. * * Turks and Caicos danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Turks and Caicos MikeG   Mon Aug 22 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Turks and Caicos Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 02:39 AM
. * * buckle up LI Phil   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:47 AM
. * * Tropical Observations danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Observations Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:06 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest HURRICANELONNY   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Big Red Machine   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* HURRICANELONNY   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest John03   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:40 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest MikeG   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:53 PM
. * * Possible BOC system Rich B   Sun Aug 21 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Possible BOC system Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 11:57 PM
. * * transition time? HanKFranK   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Home brew???? WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:55 AM
. * * First Model Runs NHC on 97L Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:18 AM
. * * Re: Possible BOC system danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:44 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions dem05   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave orientations/ interactions Clark   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:49 AM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest NONAME   Sun Aug 21 2005 07:34 PM
. * * Re: 97 Invest Clark   Sun Aug 21 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Random Chaos   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Rabbit   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Clark   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching Kevin   Sat Aug 20 2005 07:23 PM
. * * All a board B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: THings I'm watching NONAME   Sat Aug 20 2005 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ryan   Sat Aug 20 2005 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... damejune2   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Ryan   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:38 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... ralphfl   Sat Aug 20 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... NewWatcher   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Don't look now but... Hawkeyewx   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Ron Basso   Fri Aug 19 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause native   Fri Aug 19 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause newbie   Fri Aug 19 2005 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Hootowl   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause ralphfl   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:21 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:31 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause imnotsignedinnow   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:39 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:49 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Big Red Machine   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause Floridacane   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause DebbiePSL   Sat Aug 20 2005 03:51 AM
. * * NAM Model (was Undramatic Pause) Jax Chris   Fri Aug 19 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: Undramatic Pause pcola   Fri Aug 19 2005 05:39 PM

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