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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
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Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: dynamic models
      Mon Aug 22 2005 03:31 PM

From NWS Melbourne PM Disc:

TUE-WED...OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE GOOD CONSENSUS WRT DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. LATEST RUN OF GFS
INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SFC CIRCULATION OVER THE SE BAHAMAS
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE FL STRAITS BY LATE WED. RECON AIRCRAFT
SET TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY. THE LOW
CENTER IS INITIALLY DRAWN NORTHWARD BY WEAKNESS IN RIDGE ASCD WITH
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST. WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN ELY FLOW BY WED. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES TUE AS REMNANT OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA BUT SHOULD SEE MORE COASTAL SHOWERS BY TUE NIGHT AND WED
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF SYS.

THU-SUN...GLOBAL SUITE POINTS TOWARD SLOW WWD MOVEMENT OF SYS OVER S
FL TO THE KEYS/FL BAY AREA FRI THEN OVER THE SE GULF THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOCAL WILD
CARD WILL BE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEEPENING SYSTEM SOUTH OF AREA WHICH
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N. RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
BOOSTED BY LATER FORECASTS AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON
DETERIORATING ELEMENTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ATTM. BEST BET WILL BE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FROM MIDWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF
SYSTEM SOUTH OF AREA

--------------------
RJB

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* T.S. Jose Forms in Bay of Campeche, Several Other Waves being Watched MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 22 2005 03:31 PM
. * * 18z GFS loop of x10 in the gulf is 'comical' Jekyhe904   Mon Aug 22 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: 10 NONAME   Mon Aug 22 2005 07:44 PM
. * * The 8 PM EDT Wrap danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap MikeG   Mon Aug 22 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap MikeG   Mon Aug 22 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap Ron Basso   Mon Aug 22 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap La Nimo   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Xtd#10 Jekyhe904   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap MikeG   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:16 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:11 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:18 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap Old Sailor   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Models danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Models Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Models Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Models Isaroni?   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Models orlando fl   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Models orlando fl   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Models DebbiePSL   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Models DebbiePSL   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Models Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Models danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Models Jekyhe904   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:35 AM
. * * status HanKFranK   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Models2 danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Models2 Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:07 AM
. * * the system that Stephen King would be proud of.... Bloodstar   Tue Aug 23 2005 04:18 AM
. * * Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of.... Rich B   Tue Aug 23 2005 05:05 AM
. * * X10 97L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:22 AM
. * * Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of.... MissBecky   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:19 AM
. * * Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of.... danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:35 AM
. * * Re: the system that Stephen King would be proud of.... Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Models Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:02 PM
. * * Re: The 8 PM EDT Wrap Big Red Machine   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Local Update WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2005 07:10 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Steveunplugged   Mon Aug 22 2005 07:36 AM
. * * random morning LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:06 AM
. * * Re: random morning *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* BORED!!!   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: random morning Rabbit   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: random morning *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* SMOKE   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: random morning Beaumont, TX   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:59 AM
. * * Re: random morning ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:40 AM
. * * Re: random morning ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Not so random storms LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Not so random storms Steve   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Not so random storms MikeG   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Not so random storms J.C.   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Not so random storms MikeG   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Ron Basso   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas MissBecky   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:00 PM
. * * other off the wall stuff HanKFranK   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas NewWatcher   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Ron Basso   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Rabbit   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas HanKFranK   Mon Aug 22 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Bloodstar   Mon Aug 22 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Ron Basso   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas native   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas emackl   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas native   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Ron Basso   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Steve hirschb.   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas MapMaster   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas naples   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Rabbit   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Keith234   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Hawkeyewx   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Clark   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Recon reports Clark   Mon Aug 22 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Recon reports scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2005 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Recon reports Clark   Mon Aug 22 2005 05:37 PM
. * * 10 back on NRL Bloodstar   Mon Aug 22 2005 05:39 PM
. * * Re: 10 back on NRL Rich B   Mon Aug 22 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Re: 10 back on NRL NONAME   Mon Aug 22 2005 06:22 PM
. * * IRONIC or what... Big Kahuna   Mon Aug 22 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: IRONIC or what... Lysis   Mon Aug 22 2005 06:51 PM
. * * Re: IRONIC or what... danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Re: IRONIC or what... Keith234   Mon Aug 22 2005 09:09 PM
. * * Keeps Going and Going danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2005 09:50 PM
. * * TS Jose, 50mph, 1002mb Rabbit   Mon Aug 22 2005 06:38 PM
. * * Re: TS Jose, 50mph, 1002mb NONAME   Mon Aug 22 2005 06:44 PM
. * * Re: TS Jose, 50mph, 1002mb Rich B   Mon Aug 22 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: TS Jose, 50mph, 1002mb scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2005 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas native   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas native   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Rabbit   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas native   Mon Aug 22 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas Rabbit   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:47 PM
. * * dynamic models HanKFranK   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: dynamic models Ron Basso   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:31 PM
. * * complaints? HanKFranK   Mon Aug 22 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Trop Wave in SE Bahamas NewWatcher   Mon Aug 22 2005 01:33 PM
. * * Hey Ron LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Hey Ron NewWatcher   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Hey Ron emackl   Mon Aug 22 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: random morning NewWatcheratwork   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: random morning native   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning J.C.   Mon Aug 22 2005 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Mon Aug 22 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Ed in Va   Mon Aug 22 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning HanKFranK   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Ed in Va   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Frank P   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Wxwatcher2   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Rabbit   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:02 AM
. * * here goes.. HanKFranK   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: here goes.. Clark   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: here goes.. Frank P   Mon Aug 22 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning naples   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning emackl   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning Beaumont, TX   Mon Aug 22 2005 10:25 AM

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