CONSIDERING THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND TPC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE FEATURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD... THE GFS APPEARS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MAY EMERGE INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. PRELIM PROGS DEPICT YDAYS FCST BASED ON COORDINATION WITH TPC... AND DAY 7 EXTRAPOLATION. THROUGH DAY 5 THIS TRACK IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE NEW 00Z NOGAPS... AND 00Z UKMET ASIDE FROM TIMING DIFFS. LAST 2 ECMWF RUNS AND 00Z CANADIAN SHOW TRACKS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
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