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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 310
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Circulation
      Tue Aug 23 2005 12:31 PM

Really don't care what they call it, its the NHC's call. What I am Concerned with is that most of the models don't develop this for another 48 hours, and I believe we will have Katrina by then. I am basing this on the visible satellite pix, relaxation of the shear, and current organizational trands. LCC seems to be coming together now and we should have a depression by 11 pm. This raises a few questions regarding its path and strength. I believe it will strengthen a bit faster than the models have been depicting, and that in itself may only play a small role in its track, however its general movement has been to the WNW/NW, and the right outliers (NAM and GFDL) may have a better idea (hate to agree with the LBAR) than the previous guidance, if only by shear luck! But I see this thing making a Northwesterly track for a day, then bending back to the WNW or west Thursday and Friday, ultimately ending up in the GOM. Its strength and WHERE it crosses is of interest for those in south and maybe even south central Florida in the near term. I'm glad recon is going out now to get a good read on this one. I don't believe the models have a good handle on it yet. They really couldn't, since no center is there to initialize on. Watching this one like a hawk. Cheers!! PS: This is not a official forecast; NHC does that.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 23 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Richie at work   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:04 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 MissBecky   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:19 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:26 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 J.C.   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 emackl   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 emackl   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Ed in Va   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 emackl   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Rich B   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:15 AM
. * * visibles HanKFranK   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:43 AM
. * * What the H@#% Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:03 AM
. * * Re: What the H@#% NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: What the H@#% NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:30 AM
. * * Circulation Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Circulation ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Frank P   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Bloodstar   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Frank P   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Jekyhe904   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Old Sailor   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Circulation MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Circulation SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: QuikSCAT Bloodstar   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Circulation SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Circulation MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Steve H1   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Circulation HURRICANELONNY   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Circulation pcola   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Jamiewx   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Hootowl   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Circulation MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Circulation VolusiaMike   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:08 PM
. * * Different area of low pressure... Clark   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:47 PM
. * * agree with scott LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:45 PM
. * * TD 12 Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:41 PM
. * * Re: TD 12 Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Different area of low pressure... troy2   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:45 PM
. * * Re: TD 12 MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Ron Basso   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Floridacane   Tue Aug 23 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Circulation *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* hurrark   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Circulation VolusiaMike   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Circulation MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Circulation damejune2   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Rabbit   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Ed in Va   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:04 PM
. * * JB Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: JB NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Re: JB scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Big Red Machine   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Circulation NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Steve   Tue Aug 23 2005 12:33 PM
. * * 99L Jamiewx   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Frank P   Tue Aug 23 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 emackl   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NONAME   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Rich B   Tue Aug 23 2005 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:36 AM
. * * Disreguard the previous links. Beach   Tue Aug 23 2005 08:09 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 NewWatcher   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:09 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2005 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10 pedro   Tue Aug 23 2005 06:15 AM

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