Really don't care what they call it, its the NHC's call. What I am Concerned with is that most of the models don't develop this for another 48 hours, and I believe we will have Katrina by then. I am basing this on the visible satellite pix, relaxation of the shear, and current organizational trands. LCC seems to be coming together now and we should have a depression by 11 pm. This raises a few questions regarding its path and strength. I believe it will strengthen a bit faster than the models have been depicting, and that in itself may only play a small role in its track, however its general movement has been to the WNW/NW, and the right outliers (NAM and GFDL) may have a better idea (hate to agree with the LBAR) than the previous guidance, if only by shear luck! But I see this thing making a Northwesterly track for a day, then bending back to the WNW or west Thursday and Friday, ultimately ending up in the GOM. Its strength and WHERE it crosses is of interest for those in south and maybe even south central Florida in the near term. I'm glad recon is going out now to get a good read on this one. I don't believe the models have a good handle on it yet. They really couldn't, since no center is there to initialize on. Watching this one like a hawk. Cheers!! PS: This is not a official forecast; NHC does that.
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