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Invest area 94L now being tracked just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

scottsvb
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl

Re: JB
Tue Aug 23 2005 01:44 PM

You guys need to not rely on the dynamical models. They change from run to run more so then the global models. I look at them for entertainment only. Best model to use (I feel) is the Nogaps. Others though will perform well with 1 or another storm during a season. If you look at what the Nogaps and somewhat combine the GFS,UKMET and Canadian and put a plot between them,, you will have a decent forecast. The FSU model ( not mm5 ) is decent as well. Anyways you need to look at the whole picture and enviroment data also to combine what a model might not see changing before its next run.
Right now with what could be TD12 it looks like this mornings burst might of given it life. Its burst was enhanced by a midlow over N Cuba and another to its NE. A weak low near 1010mb formed near 22.4N and 74.8W. Its movement is to the WNW with a bend to the NNW later tomorrow. It should become a TS in the next day or 2.
Im not changing my projected path ( although for florida it could go eigther way) but its going to be hard. I still expect it to be near Nassau later tomorrow and just N of Grand Bahama or 50-100 miles east of Verobeach, Fl by Friday morning. It should miss the trough and move back west or even wsw and cross the state late Friday into Saturday between WPB and the Cape. Could be a weak hurricane by then. It should move into the gulf later on Saturday between Venice and Clearwater. Movement will be slow. After that the guess would be a turn to the N and head up towards the Panhandle but that is more then 5days out. Further strengthning should be expected.
This path will be simular to Erin almost a decade ago but not exactly (of course).

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	MikeC	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:44 PM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Beaumont, TX	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:29 PM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Rabbit	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:35 PM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	LoisCane	Tue Aug 23 2005 06:18 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Ron Basso	Tue Aug 23 2005 06:38 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Richie at work	Tue Aug 23 2005 07:04 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	MissBecky	Tue Aug 23 2005 07:15 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 23 2005 07:19 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 23 2005 07:26 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	J.C.	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:10 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	emackl	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:15 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:19 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	emackl	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:37 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:44 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Ed in Va	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:36 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:42 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:43 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	emackl	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:38 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Rich B	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:48 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Ron Basso	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:55 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 09:08 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Ron Basso	Tue Aug 23 2005 09:15 AM
visibles	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 23 2005 09:43 AM
What the H@#%	Beach	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:03 AM
Re: What the H@#%	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:08 AM
Re: What the H@#%	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:30 AM
Circulation	Beach	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:22 AM
Re: Circulation	ftlaudbob	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:29 AM
Re: Circulation	Frank P	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:34 AM
Re: Circulation	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:50 AM
Re: Circulation	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:53 AM
Re: Circulation	Bloodstar	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:02 AM
Re: Circulation	Clark	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:21 AM
Re: Circulation	Frank P	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:52 AM
Re: Circulation	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:56 AM
Re: Circulation	Beach	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:08 AM
Re: Circulation	Rabbit	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:22 AM
Re: Circulation	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:27 AM
Re: Circulation	Jekyhe904	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:33 AM
Re: Circulation	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:15 AM
Re: Circulation	Old Sailor	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:20 AM
Re: Circulation	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:15 AM
Re: Circulation	MikeC	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:42 AM
Re: Circulation	SkeetoBite	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:57 AM
Re: QuikSCAT	Bloodstar	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:51 AM
Re: Circulation	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 11:49 AM
Re: Circulation	SkeetoBite	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:01 PM
Re: Circulation	MikeC	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:14 PM
Re: Circulation	Thunderbird12	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Circulation	Steve H1	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:31 PM
Re: Circulation	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:26 PM
Re: Circulation	HURRICANELONNY	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:34 PM
Re: Circulation	pcola	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:46 PM
Re: Circulation	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:38 PM
Re: Circulation	Big Red Machine	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:45 PM
Re: Circulation	Ron Basso	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:52 PM
Re: Circulation	Hootowl	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:32 PM
Re: Circulation	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:35 PM
Re: Circulation	MikeC	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:40 PM
Re: Circulation	VolusiaMike	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:43 PM
Re: Circulation	Clark	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:08 PM
Different area of low pressure...	Clark	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:39 PM
Re: Different area of low pressure...	scottsvb	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:47 PM
agree with scott	LoisCane	Tue Aug 23 2005 03:18 PM
Re: Different area of low pressure...	Rabbit	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:52 PM
Re: Different area of low pressure...	scottsvb	Tue Aug 23 2005 03:08 PM
Re: Different area of low pressure...	Ron Basso	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:45 PM
TD 12	Big Red Machine	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:41 PM
Re: TD 12	Rabbit	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:46 PM
Re: Different area of low pressure...	troy2	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:45 PM
Re: TD 12	MikeC	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:44 PM
Re: Circulation	Ron Basso	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Circulation	Floridacane	Tue Aug 23 2005 02:21 PM
Re: Circulation	Thunderbird12	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Circulation Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	hurrark	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:48 PM
Re: Circulation	VolusiaMike	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Circulation	MikeC	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Circulation	damejune2	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:43 PM
Re: Circulation	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:34 PM
Re: Circulation	Rabbit	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:54 PM
Re: Circulation	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Circulation	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:02 PM
Re: Circulation	Ed in Va	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:04 PM
JB	Beach	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:09 PM
Re: JB	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:12 PM
Re: JB	scottsvb	Tue Aug 23 2005 01:44 PM
Re: Circulation	Big Red Machine	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Circulation	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Circulation	Steve	Tue Aug 23 2005 12:33 PM
99L	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:49 AM
Re: Circulation	Frank P	Tue Aug 23 2005 10:29 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	emackl	Tue Aug 23 2005 09:32 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	NONAME	Tue Aug 23 2005 09:39 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Rich B	Tue Aug 23 2005 09:04 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:50 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Beach	Tue Aug 23 2005 07:36 AM
Disreguard the previous links.	Beach	Tue Aug 23 2005 08:09 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	NewWatcher	Tue Aug 23 2005 07:31 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 23 2005 07:09 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	Random Chaos	Tue Aug 23 2005 07:14 AM
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10	pedro	Tue Aug 23 2005 06:15 AM

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