Recon is reporting that the area of low pressure with the depression is not where satellite estimates had it pegged and is instead further north, at 23.5N or so. This places the center underneath a new band of curved convection forming SE of San Salvador and east of Rum Cay.
I expect this storm to be upgraded to a tropical depression at 5pm based upon the findings of a definitive closed center of low pressure. As recon has traversed the storm in a counterclockwise pattern, winds have come from the west-southwest on the southern side of the storm to the east on the north side of the circulation. Winds on the eastern side of the storm have been measured as high as 37kt at flight level (which here is about 240m ~ 750-800ft above the surface), with a pressure of about 1010mb. Given these reports, I estimate this will be a 30kt depression -- or, if it continues to organize -- Tropical Storm Katrina -- at 5pm. Still waiting on the first vortex report from the recon, but that isn't due until closer to 3pm as I recall.
Oh yeah -- 97L -- indications are that the low-level center may be reforming near a mid-level center embedded underneath the deep convection near 17.5N/35.5W. Despite lacking convection for quite some time, this storm has maintained excellent low-level banding features and now appears to be taking that next step towards development. It probably won't beat the Bahamas disturbance as I thought last night, but I do expect this to become a tropical storm before it gets to 45W...perhaps even 40W if the center is indeed reforming underneath the deep convection. Probably won't be upgraded at 5pm, but might at 11p if trends continue.
Got a feeling this place is going to get active again in quite a hurry...
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