Here's what I see.... as an amateur...
I don't buy the recurvature after it touches SE Florida - what would steer it that way? Where's the feature that would do that? I just don't see it in the overall weather pattern.
I think its going to come into the gulf, and 72 hours from now the AVN says the sheer environment is going to be good for intensification. That's bad timing - just about when this thing will be heading in that direction. SSTs off Destin two days ago were EIGHTY NINE Fahrenheit (no, that's not a mis-type - I was out 20nm in my boat, and that's what I MEASURED) That's bathtub warm, and LOTS of fuel for this thing if she gets out here.
I agree that none of the models have a handle on the initialization right now that "works" - and the only dynamic model I see a run for is the GFS. The numercials have a horrid record the last couple of years - I'm not buying their solutions. I suspect the GFS is too far east, for the same reason I believe it won't recurve before it crosses the peninsula - what draws it that way? I don't buy the evolution of the pattern that the GFS puts in place to cause it, and thus, I don't buy the "big bend" either.
As someone who's taken two whacks this year already (Dennis being the worse of the pair) and having been nailed by Ivan, I certainly don't want another one. Nonetheless, unless I see major motion away from this general direction in the next 48 hours I'm going to make sure I have my Tapcons at the ready for the house and my boat prepared to move - again.
My gut and look at the overall pattern suggests further west than us, but this far out little errors in terms of track make for huge errors in terms of where she ends up.
What I think is reasonably certain at this point is that SOMEONE is going to get shelled by this puppy; SE Florida looks to get something, but probably nothing major. The gulf coast, on the other hand, is an entirely different matter.
It would be nice if this thing came inland and rained itself out as it headed north, but that looks like a long shot from where I sit here.
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