In addition to the track forecast, it'll be interesting to see the intensity forecast on the next update. The 12Z GFDL really explodes the system starting tomorrow, but its track is slower and further south than most of the models I have seen (with the exception of the MM5) and it actually passes Katrina over the Keys, so the center never really has to deal with land in that model solution until it hits the FL Gulf Coast at 120 hours. The SHIPS is more conservative but still brings it up to hurricane strength at 36 hours before the forecast landfall.
While the center of the system is now well-embedded in the overall convection, there appears to be some dry air that it needs to work out of its system before having an opportunity to rapidly intensify.
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