12Z NOGAPS is further east in LA than it has been since Friday 12Z. Trending eastward over time. I think my original MS landfall may be pretty good from almost a week out, though it was luck and based on my bullseye for 2002.
ISIDORE IS LIKELY IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A LOOP...AS THE STORM
HAS NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS DEVELOPING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING RIDGING
TO THE EAST SHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST AND
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW
FORECASTING ISIDORE TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST AT 72 HR
AND THE GFDL MOVING IT ONSHORE IN ABOUT 60 HR. AS NOTED 6 HR AGO...
THE GFDL IS LIKELY TOO FAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPEEDWISE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
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