HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 (edited~danielw) ..KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
THE EYE HAS BECOME CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN GOES-12 INFRARED IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING... MOST RECENTLY MEASURED AT 945 MB. WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET EXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY...
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